Do we really have a chance?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by tom_p, Oct 27, 2001.

  1. tom_p


    It is Saturday, a day in which my mind still ponders the machinations of the previous week, while my body is far away. Every so often and especially after bad weeks, against the advice of all good trading books, I wonder about the "conspiracy theory". It is neither new nor original, and every intelligent trader on this board is familiar with it. I think of how easy it would be for the big boys (BB's) to have real-time access to most of the big daytrading firm's accounts (either covertly or cooperatively). A computer model built by their top quants, which is updated with current trade information and has inbuilt likely trader entry and exit points, would present several short term price scenarios resulting in optimal gains. The BB's would then execute these jiggles by crossing shares to each other, their only expense, ignoring normal day-to-day trading risk, being the miniscule SEC/NASD fees per share. They know our trading rules, they know our trades - all the fine minds out there please tell me that I'm not wasting my time in this gruelling endeavour known as daytrading.
  2. Ahhh, but within the masses of traders are scalpers, S&R players, momo swing traders, oscillator players etc etc. Each sub-group has different entries, different exits, different trade durations etc etc. So the BBs aint gonna do us no harm, cos we aint a conglomeration of homogeneous dumb money :)
  3. Magna

    Magna Administrator

    Hi Tom,

    please tell me that I'm not wasting my time in this gruelling endeavour known as daytrading.

    You're not wasting your time, and yes it can be grueling. Also humiliating, frustrating, intensely painful, always humbling. Always.

    Ahhh, but there's the flip side.:) Anyway, take it slow, trade small, use superb defense, make sure you're always able to show up the next day. And remember the quote I frequently refer to (which has been attributed to a wide variety of people):

    Press on - nothing in the world can take the place of perseverance. Talent will not; nothing is more common than unsuccessful men with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelics. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.
  4. Well that explains it. I've been wondering why a talented, educated genius such as myself is have such a hard time gettin' rich.
  5. tom_p


    candle, granted there is a variety of different traders out there, with different entries, exits, durations etc. However, I think that given access to the trading data for a Nasdaq small-cap, it would be possible to build a weighted averaged trading "profile" after having filtered out institutional and other "friendly" players which could be used advantageously by the BB's. Heck, as an ex-quant, you could whip up a model like this in no time :D

    Magna, thanks for the encouraging words. Persevere I shall.
  6. tntneo

    tntneo Moderator

    there is no doubt that if you have more information or this kind of information you can profit from it.
    Specialists do that everyday on NYSE.
    With other markets it is 'not' or less the case although there is something to be said about wholesale of equity orders while another division of the same company is a trading firm ( !!! :eek: !!! ).

    However, expecting a conspiracy to explain your current trading difficulties is looking at the wrong reason.
    Trading is simple, I keep saying that and many must find me annoying because of that, while they have big problems. (that's my conspiracy theory.. just kidding).

    Don't blame it on an unseen, omnipotent BB. If you want to change the outcome, change the behaviour.

    Think about it, if you do the exact opposite of what you did, you would make a lot of money. It was all YOUR CHOICE, not a conspiracy.

  7. kenstl


    That must be it....I can see it now. What "they've"(BB's) done is put a microchip into my computer that tells them exactly when I enter an order. It MUST be in my computer, since I secretly (don't tell anyone) had the other microchip they implanted in my skull removed last summer when I went down to Mexico. THEN, knowing what I'm doing, "they" cross their orders to one another, thus jiggling me out of the trade. In addition, "they" own all the brokers and ECNs, locking in MORE profits for them from my commissions when I get stopped out of the trade and then have to re-enter once the jiggle is over.

    It's all so clear to me now...."they're" watching everything I do. "They" have a special machine that uncodes the encrypted info that says who placed each trade (faster than the speed of light, of course, since this information has to be lifted from my computer, beamed to them, processed, and then counter-measures put into place to prepare the jiggle before it's too late) that tells them who is doing what trade. THEN, if the trade is coming from ME, "they" screw me out of the trade every time.

    Those bastards....:eek:
  8. Magna

    Magna Administrator

    Omigod, they've killed kenstl. Those bastards.:)
  9. Hi morons. having fun? :)
  10. tom_p

    the answer seems simple enough.. trade with the Big Boys instead of with the traders they are jiggling around.. actually, trading agaisnt the stops of other traders isnt such a bad idea.. for instance a stock that is consolidating near its yearly low.. you know once it blows through the low that there are gonna be alot of stops there.. or stocks that attempt to breakout intraday and then get slapped down below their previous pullback area.. you know the traders that bought the break are gonna bail at that level.. of course that doesnt mean the stock is going to move in the direction of the stops, but it gives you some idea what to expect from the tape.. personally, whenever i start getting the feeling that someone is out to get me.. i remind myself that i alone am responsible for the trades that i make.. on the other hand.. just because you are paranoid doesnt mean they arent out to get you..

    #10     Oct 27, 2001