Do we have a trend in place, I just don't see one

My bad, the title of the thread is kind of incorrect. My question was if there is a trend in place from this point on, based on the FOMC.

Excellent advice Landis, much appreciate it. There is a reason that I did not lose more than what I did, I realized early on that I am fighting the trend and got out. Mean reversion works when following the trend. I agree that the trend has been in place for whole of the April.

There are some really hard headed perma bears on the ultra short boards on Yahoo and I have no plans to be one of them. e.g. FXP

Excellent advice

 

ashatet,

Here is a chart of the $SPX.X....as it relates to the e-mini S&P (ES). At a minimum....we are in the middle of a Pullback....with the potential to turn into a Reversal....continue Downward. We did test the Resistance from the High back in 2000. So....is this the end of the Up Trend....who knows....not me. Definitely leaning down though.

VSTscalper

 

VSTscalper,

Thanks dude. I agree from the TA standpoint that the long term downtrend is maintained, but I got a problem with the sovereign funds and if they start pouring money into equities, all bets are off. All that money has got to go somewhere and equities are the best action in town. Then DOW marches to 16K by the end of 2008 and shorts get crushed...

 

ashatet,

This is the $INDU (Dow)_Monthly that I put in the Tradestation forum on 4-16-08. Nice ride up move from 2003 to present time. I have no idea how far it may go....Up or Down....I just go by my indicators. I do expect at least a pullback.

VSTscalper

 

Here is the $INDU (Dow)_Daily....with some comments.

VSTscalper

 

Youl generally don't short a bull market unless you enjoy losing money. Some short sellers can make a small profit, but more will lose money. There are many factors in play that is keeping the market higher inspite of all the so called 'bad news'.

 

so what do you do in bear market, keep losing money. Tell that to people who bought Nasdaq in 2000. Need to follow the trend.

 

A trend only goes as far as the next bend. Fix your attention on the upswings and downswings of the market as a big meal ticket daily. This could be CL, YM, etc .. whatever toots your horn. Concentrate on using those ups and downs and you can really get your money making going.

 

Make sure you always remember this lesson. 9 out of 10 times adding to a loser will work out fine and you get out with a feeling you got away with murder. But the one time comes - sooner or later - that makes you regret you ever started playing the game.

Increasing your position is fine, just make sure the position is in the green in the first place. NEVER ADD TO LOSERS.

 

It depends on the size of your initial trade size if you can add to your position.