Do we have a trend in place, I just don't see one

Discussion in 'Trading' started by ashatet, Apr 30, 2008.

  1. ashatet


    I have been on a roll, but I have managed to lose 50% of my last 6 months intake in April alone. I am going to award myself with a trading freeze and a month long time off for that stunt.

    Do you guys see a trend. I see that the expected return is 0, I have always been able to call the market trend, but now, nada, nothing, I just do not see a trend. Just curious what do other fellas do when you do not see a trend. I do not see trend in Indexes, financials, commodities, long term bonds or international equity.

    Any comments and suggestions will be very much appreciated.
  2. Lucrum


    What kind of time frame are you looking at?
  3. If you lost 50% this month, I find you must be short. The bottom came in the day of the BSC debacle. You have to realize the fed changed the way markets work on that day. As far as the trend, I find the market is in a sideways channel. I think we will get a headfake to the upside next week that looks like a breakout and then we will see a resumption to test the lows.
  4. ashatet


    I am a swing trader. So, I am looking into the next 3 months, going into summer.
  5. ashatet


    Ditto, yes, I was 2X Short. I have my own mean reversion formula that I used, but as the markets moved away from me, I added to the losing position, just to lose more.

    I am not asking for a handout here, but your comments are appreciated. Why would you say that the markets would go down, there is too much money on the sidelines and must be parked somewhere, I see being long as safer bet than being short now.
  6. ashatet


    In continuation to my previous post, I lost 50% of what made in last 6 months, which is 10% of my net assets, but that is still quite a bit of loss.
  7. As long as you are not thinking to go long because you've lost so much shorting.. See attached.. To me odds favor short side.. There also MAY not be a lot of Fed efforts in play next few weeks.

    So.. the "current" trend is still long but precariously so... at a fork in the road.
  8. retire45 - yeah, I agree.
  9. The market has obviously been in an UPTREND since the March lows around SPX 1250; hence your system's inability to capture such an uptrend.

    The title of this thread is incorrect.
    Moreover, the fact that your "mean-reversion" formula of your system got clobbered fully CONFIRMS that a trend has been in place.

    In fact, since the short-term low on April 15th back around SPX 1324, the market has stayed above the 10-day MA pretty much from that day forward.

    I have heard several people here on ET ( S2007S ) talk about how this has been a "sideways" market, but I find that to be absolutely bizarre given that the stats show that the SPX is +10.8% from lows made about 5 weeks ago, and the IWM is +12.5%

    The market was able to make a multi-month double bottom on the charts with the help of too much pessimism, too many shorts, too much cash on the sidelines, and a FED that was being very accommodative. Unfortunately, some people simply watch far too much CNBC and don't watch how the MARKET is responding to bad news. When it goes up on "bad" news, you know that you have a strong underlying trend to the upside.

    So, if you want to stick your head in the "sand" and not be aware of the caveats of a "mean-reversion" trading system during a trending market environment, then so be it. If anything, you need to change the parameters of your "system", otherwise be able to recognize what kind of market atmosphere you are in and act accordingly.
  10. maxpi


    TA based, I see a lot less resistance to a move upward than down if the DOW goes above 13150 for any reason. If it gets above 13400 it could run another 400 pts. I don't know if anything could happen to make that occur however, maybe the jobs that will be created by the tax rebates or some Fed news, whatever. If it moves below 12700 the next stop could be at 12250 and below 12200..... look out below......
    #10     Apr 30, 2008