Well, as you know, I just started trading with this method a couple of months ago. So, I have not tracked the win %. I can tell you that I am winning much more than my other method. It is probably about 65% and being that it is a breakout method, the risk to reward is good when letting winners run.
TS What size are you looking at 30 and over? 50 or 100 and over? Do you use a market "speedometer" based on volume flow per second? D.
I do not look for a specific lot size. I have just gotten a good feel for it after watching for a few years. It is really hard to describe in writing. Pace is probably one of the most important clues. Then there must be several contracts going off at the breakout price and pace must keep up. Sorry, I can't define several because this is just the "feel" part of it. If you have Time and Sales take a look at 6/23 at 9:51:28 on YM when price hit 10600. This Time and Sales action at 10600 and then into 10599 is a good example of what I look for. In this case I was looking to short under 10601 and the Time and Sales confirmed the move. I'm attaching a chart showing some of the T/S. Of course, you can't see the pace which is very important.
On straight T/S the lot size is a key signal. If you are running DOM you probably have a single row that blinks continually with the Best Bid /Best Ask and the T/S stuff. That one row is where you get the sense of block size. Just having a rough measure of small medium and large blocks sizes under your belt, then gives you a "read" on PACE as you suggest. For straight T/S the vertical column that you sense is important. You can arrange the columns to get the volume right where you want it relative to time and price. When you run into trading situations and are having partial fills, it is a good idea to hit the print button once in a while to further debrief on how to anticipate slippage. The peaking (troughing) on money trades can get important enough to know something about it. Not being able to explain it does not make it intuitive as has been suggested elsewhere. There are a lot of mental processes that are very well honed when trading. They get to be so thoughtless (not requiring conscous thought) that they defy explanation so to speak. Were a person to be working towards sport memory on the entire display, then the T/S vertical exercise becomes a good lead in to being able to sweep the display rigorously and routinely. Often the unfortunate opposite monitoring of displays occurs where a person is drill a hole in a particular part of the screen to force it to do what is required to make money. "The HOPE focus" where all rational observations are abandoned to just watch profits turn into losses on one small part of the display. T/S reading is THE example that shows the efficacy of "sweeping the total display monitor. they are opposites in nature but common in snesory perception. In T/S the data moves at a pace and in sweeping the person moves his sensors (eyes) at a pace. It is worth saying one more time that this is tough to incorporate this in back testing. imagine backtesting sweeping a display to find a combo of sensed items that form a simple analytic signal to create a decision. Not intuitive, but high speed rational mental processes that operate much faster than the market. There is a standing joke among glider pilots that goes along like: How do you land that thing? I dunno, it just stops flying after a while. Most gliders can go as slow as 15mph and still fly. Practicing landing on days with a 30 mph cross wind is considered good practice.
curious ... what the record is for trendline on daily stock chart I notice HANS ... has sure had a long long one
Who has a 3rd party "market speedometer" program compatible with E-signal available or willing to share? Volume/second?
I deleted the post because after thinking about it I realized you might take it the wrong way but I was too late. I was commenting on your way of expressing yourself, not the content of the post which I take quite seriously.