Hi, there! B-Team water boy here! Now, Jack, there you go confusing people by stating theory as fact: "You have all the points required to draw the next trend channel by the time the price leaves the prior channel." That is simply not always true, especially in the case of your beloved FTT. Many have been the times that I have drawn the new channel by your rules. Fortunately for my account balance I never traded them. And discouraging people from trading during the doldrums: "You can leave the market for this period of lowprofitability and greatest daily risk." Tsk! Tsk! Some very fine scalps lie on the street waiting to be picked up if you can discern how the crowd positioned itself. Some of the highest probability trades reside in the scariest formations. Didn't you teach us that about HVS's? And you are such a plagiar: "The first difficult step is to move the forming bar to the middle of your chart." You never said any such thing before I posted how I do that on my one minute charts. As they say, imitiation is... Otherwise, a classic Jack post! Well done! I even understood it all! What is wrong with me? Or are you having fleeting moments of lucidity? Too bad your Jackophants don't experience that. Sure you don't want to do that book together? It would surely outlive us, or at least you. Be the longest book in print you ever had. Jack and Hypo. My head swims! We could sell a copy to all 35K members of ET, haha! One whole shitload more than your books sold. Seven times what my book sold. We would be famous for "The Theory of Miraculous Synergy", wherein 44 edgelets with negative expectancy amazingly combine to produce fabulous wealth. Mikey. P.S.: BTW, I mean no disrespect. You are absolutely my favorite trading theoretician. You are to trading as Aristotle was to physics.
I take about 16 actions (8 swings) per day for about 0.6 times the daily range, and that's catching the turns pretty well. I don't think it's realistic to make three times the daily range; sometimes one can catch an "ATR Reversal" day (05/11/05) for between 1.0-1.5 ATRs. One needs a minimum "swing range" to generate any profit whatsoever because of the slippage required to stop-and-reverse at the swing extremes, not to mention the dreaded "scare pockets". I recommend that people test at least 500 days of data to measure the distribution of swing ranges across various volume and time frames. Then, one can construct swing channels to make sharp and accurate turns. Although these past few days have put the fear of God in some swingers (market has developed spiky hair).
Greatest trader ever... Over $100 million shorting the crash of '29. You see, the concept of testing a level of S or R, means, in essence, that we don't know what's coming, that we must wait for the test to tell us. It throws a wrench into any mechanical system, since, in essence, the outcome, may be up once and down the next time... So, why take a chance, use the M and W to get into trade, ALWAYS! BTW, since you're going to be reading, try Larry Williams. I know groups of people that make a good living, trading an idea, which is in one line of one of his books... It has to do with the psychology of trading: After three or more days down, the market is prone to go up. Then, add this little rule: Wait for the stock to show you for 15 mins that it can hold a price higher than yesterday's close, then, buy. Think of it this way, we have a natural tendency to chase prices that seem to run away, never the ones in the doldrums... And, this is exploited all day long. One more thing, trade management is as important as figuring out direction. Think of it this way, the best probabilities in any trade are around 70%. So, if you have an edge, you're a little better off, than tossing a coin. Always a stop, and tight. The tightness will also make you improve your timing... I guess Livermore got me a little side tracked... But, WTF! Good trading.
My nominal number for actions is around 20 BUT when it goes higher it can be nearly double that. It is a matter of pace. As the pace of a days combination of trends goes to lower pace the reseult is nearly a doubling of actions.
Why do you insist on chasing? There is a high correlation with the time of Grob's posting and many of your own detractions. The majority of the time you have no questions which may indicate one of two things, either you know exactly what you're not doing, or don't know what to ask. You are one of the more persistant antithesis alias/no alias posters. You mention that you monitor and seek to exploit consolidation of which I only saw one region (if you participate in ES) where you would have been likely to participate throughout the entire day. It lasted a few mins and barely a single percent of the entire days available profit region. I rode thru this region and managed to slug out the remaining 99% of the day quite nicely. Yes all of this means nothing but surely you must be seeking something or are you protecting something? I can't quite figure this out. HVS. I know you don't believe in volume because you have stated a few times before. As such, volume as a precursor in HVS would be silly and undefinable from your own context/perception. HVS is profit galore and only risk if your not uber sharp and can efficiently pull the trigger (ie. the limiting case of profit per unit of time even when considering that you always have to buy the spread). I know I am new to this but can already relate and have and will continue to consistently profit from many of these bounded concepts. A scalp subsedes an objective to trade continuously. Continuous Scalp??? The majority of what I do as a result of being continuously oriented is finding a reason why not to "HOLD" (ie. flaw)... It just so happens that this also overlaps with a number of aspects that Grob mentions... Let me pose a more constructive Q... John Merchant bka Mike. What would you like out of this thread and what are you trying to contribute to it? Do you want to contribute anything?
Agreed livermore. I am fully engaged in the testing aspects of the market. My orientation is biased to the context of these trendlines and which pertinent (ie. continued profit) trendline extension tests I need to place out in front of the price action. It is nice to be oriented this way since then I don't have profit targets. Just an orientation to note when I am not making profits... I am striving to increase the number of tests that I can place out in front of the price action. Grob109... Would you be willing to post a few snapshots of what you are seeing unfolding regarding your current trendlines on whatever instrument you choose. Oddly, I do have a Q related to merchant and it is regarding when there is a right line breakout without having had an FTT. For such instances, the right line became the test point and then flaw. Fortunately I was holding the traversal into what became the flaw and just rode thru into the new channel region, but I did not know the volatility of the channel. Would you be willing to address any of this or provide some considerations?
AM... Still not convinced? HVS look alot different on the right side (figurative and literal LOL)... Grob109. The volume here is super extroadinary, do the pace regions still apply or are they broader. Presumably, they can be evaluated by simply noting the correspondance between dP and dV. Is this reasonable? Right Line people... If there's a right line break without having had an FTT, do you continue to hold for a new Point 3 unless breakeven action is triggered? There's an instance of this on my AM chart today circa 10:00/10:15... The right chart said 10:10 had an FTT inside of the 10:10 bar and thus there was a 5M annotated lateral channel for the following 6 (5M) bars that was followed by breakout above R on the lateral. I treated them differently and according to the chart on the right side. One set of circumstances is more profitable than the other. Either way is profitable as far as these situations have arisen, but I'm speaking for myself.
The rule is to exit your position and simultaneously reverse it for making money in the new direction by executing that action at the point where the most profit is made. Any earlier or later is simply a screwup and you will need to wash your mental chalkboard clean of that picture. The best way to acheive this is to annotate 50 charts or fill several three ring binders successfully demonstrating to your subcogintive awareness the awesome power of postdictive analysis.
Hi John, Will you, please, get of Jack's back. Don't you realize we badly need teachers like him to keep up the supply of studious market lambs. Especially in our days with all these devilish auto traders killing off our rightful volatility. Why don't you encourage him to preach P/V vector-charting once more. This will keep things spinning properly. Be good, nononsense PS. Aristotle, wasn't that the guy from before Jack's IBM days, around the time Joe Granville discovered the 200day MA? IBM philosophical thought: "All parts should go together without forcing. You must remember that the parts you are reassembling were disassembled by you. Therefore, if you can't get them together again, there must be a reason. By all means, do not use a hammer. - IBM Maintenance Manual, 1925" ____________________________ Trend Finding is Edge Finding and Edge Finding is Trend Finding nononsense's axiom
I thought all of you might be interested to know that we have just completed our first round of experiments with trend lines and ... wait for it ... have been able to prove that trendlines do improve a few trading strategies. There are entry/exit rules that apparently can demonstrate a definite shift in a success rate of trading up to 61% (so far). Interesting though that there are only a few time frames that could demonstrate this ability. Other time frames were consistently loosing. Volume had no affect on the trendline performance. Results were virtually identical with or without the volume (both tick count and shares). The entry/exit techniques were the best on shorter time frames compared to trendlines time frame. That is it so far.