the problem for me though, is that unlike the rest of et, my broker wont let me trade in the past. he insists i make all decisions on the hard right hand edge of the chart. bummer
My goodness, 6 pages, and you're still debating this! Has anyone ever seen a good musician play in person. I have. Used to know a man who was extremely talented. Could play several instruments. I watched him play his own instrument. A guitar that cost about $12,000. Sounded beautiful. I watched the man put his expensive instrument down and take up another handed to him by someone else. What do you think happened. Well, one cannot deny that the sound was not as good, but it was remarkable how nice that guy could make a mediocre instrument sound. Absolutely incredible. I have seen the same phenomena with a skilled mechanic who was with me when my car broke down. Didn't have the correct tools to do the repair, but somehow the guy found a way to get it started and get us to his repair shop. I've also seen good cooks in my kitchen, working with the crap tools and limited ingredients that I have in my pantry, make dishes that tasted wonderful. My own cooking is pretty primitive, so I was (again) stunned that someone could make a dish that tasted so good in my kitchen. How the hell did they do that? TALENT...SKILL...EXPERIENCE... You folks want to know if trendlines work? The real answer is, when you guys use them, generally the answer is NO, but in the hands of a talented, skilled, experienced trader who knows how to prepare and use them correctly, YES!!! Lefty
Well, predicting future random events wouldn't violate causality. Such endeavors may be doomed to failure, but I fail to see how this violates our intuitive notion of causality. Besides, you'll have trouble convincing a trader than market movement is entirely random. Finally, it makes no sense to claim that price ticks are random and serially independent, and then in the next breath imply that one can predict the market using price alone. At least, that's the way it seems to me. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. Finally, trendlines are nothing but price; hence, it seems that they would qualify under your exception.
Spot on !!! Allthough in my opinion the question is flawed to begin with. Its like asking does a basketball work? Does a Guitar work? Does a hammer or a saw work? None of the above does "work" but someone skilled at using them can do wonders with them. Btw. personally I never take a trade based on a trend line alone...but they are an important tool in my trading toolbox. Like salt to a cook perhaps. I could do without them but it would hurt my performance a bit. Trent
Nothing can predict the future. Don't fool yourself. Some things (cycles, Elliott waves, astrology) can appear to work for awhile. When they stop working followers lose money. There is no easy money in the business of trading. There is some evidence that long term holding makes money. Warren Buffett holds things a long time. Bill Gates made a big bet in Microsoft, held on 25 years. Both men are billionaires.
Scary thread. Luckily, the opposite hypothesis works as well. This is a great example of the "classic" ET thread. THe one where people express their trenchant views on why something is BS or doesn't work. The reality is though, that they could just as easily have typed the same stuff from the viewpoint of their inabilities and incompetence. Try rereading three or four posts from that viewpoint. Kiwi points out dbphoenix's classic failure re trends. I guess we could at least admit that when it comes to graphics, an MA is just a trend line that is not as confident. What I find just as amazing as figuring out if the violinist or the violin maker is the genius, is the consideration of which is more important for making money: the left or right channel line? Breaking the habit of using only one line (the lesser) to do stuff, takes quite a while it looks like. Why does a parallel line work anyway (if you are able to use it)?
I find that the best way to use trend lines is to use them in conjunction with pivot points. It works well for me.
What information does it give you? I've seen plenty of trendline breaks that then turned around and resumed the trend stronger than ever.