Do Trendlines work?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by duard, Apr 3, 2005.

  1. Hi Grob109,
    Would you possibly consider joining the Elite Chat room one day to give a live demonstration of the trades you take with the technique you are using ? It is very interesting. If so, please post a date you would be there. I would be happy to make a nice contribution to a charity of your choice.
    Thanks,
    CL
     
    #191     May 3, 2005
  2. #192     May 3, 2005
  3. Had to really hustle today to rack up the C->C this AM. Just found out today is green$pan. 2:15 pm, bracket and put your trendlines to work starting at 2:15... Primo PM to see clean trendlines at work. Prepare to act.
     
    #193     May 3, 2005
  4. Thanks for the comments. I feel that each thing you have expressed is correct and it a place from which to build.
    I will make a few general comments and then focus on some pertinent details that will help you assess specific parts of the trading sequences.

    I am doing okay ossacsionally, so I will try for a little continuity if possible.

    By the by. this is a greenspan day and so the am will be quiet and then you will have some nice BO and after trading today. The B team can go back and get 5 or 6 complete playouts I have posted on those several occassions. It is like clockwork for me to incite them and then they get to see another greenspan as the simplest example they fail to undrstand.


    NOW the comments:

    Your use of 15, 5 and 2 to trade on the 5 is a basic and fundamental necessity. You see that and you use it. P, V is also your fundamental market driving principle. This is the essence of being able to see and hear the market which leads to building a mind that is in harmony with making money the market gives you.


    To make money, we always consider what is available at the time. You discern that "pace" is the basic consideration for determining availability. Rockets, icebergs and slaloming relate to this pace. The context of pace occurs within the Intermediate term trend (IT) condition. Notice there is nothing ever going haywire (plastic twine) in the IT. Our minds are able to understand the slower enveloping trends very soon and very adequately. This stability of understanding is a strong framework for building the rest of the market and trading paradigm between the trader and the market.

    There is slim pickings when you read the literature when it comes to pace. Use other terms to find info. make a list of 10 or so items that collectively give you insight on pace.

    For making money pace determines risk determines availability.

    Here is where you are presently situated and now you can see why I gave yesterday's advice (the honey that really drew out the long term "B" flies it seems). Why couldn't they differentiate inquiry of an experienced person from inquiry of a newer person?

    You trade entries and exits rather than hold and reverse. And for two reason sets you deal with trader perception items like the faster aspect whipsaw and the slower aspect, internal trend channel formations as analysis considerations.

    Let me step into the picture and guide a little. I can spout facts but intead, here, the matter is shifting the emphasis and establishing relative importance of specific observations.

    What I do intensionally is comment in ways that allow pathways to be build in the comfort of success while at the same time fragmenting other pathways that, later, magically the pieces can be reconnected in a more supportive manner. It is the alternative to working puzzle pieces on an anvil with a hammer; hammering ill fitting pieces gives you art work and working with real pieces gently as a synthesis gives you science in a complex arena.

    To do monitoring and analysis it is more a case of observing what you are being given instead of a set of rules of "what to look for". Obviously, I do suggest, a lot of the time, "where to look". Where is a place on your screen. What is the market talking to you and you seeing what it says.

    I took you across the 5 min trend traverse (R2L) gausian by gausian (2 minute). and you undertood "look for x at the L side" and "look for y at the R side". I espouse a repeated process (monitor, analyze, decide, and act (mostly hold)) and I am now guiding you to do the process. I do say what you will find at various times and situations but I am not guiding you to "look for" primarily.

    Here is an observation. When we look at any given fractal, we see the effects of slower and faster fractals as well. Those who use periodic continuous function or periodic statistical analysis do either by synthesis or analysis assess the effects of periodic components throughout the spectrums. These efforts sometimes relate to making money. How can they be used?

    We are definitely using an assortment as close to being the minumum amount as possible. This is a considered monitoring orientation that serves to better make money than using formation or whipsaw rules. The 623 rules that outline living for conservative Jewish groups make for a functional life. Others use a Jiminy Cricket orientation derived from tapping the conscience. (with science). Welling up to consciousness a way of operating is best done from fundamental rational processes.


    Seeing how the P,V relation works throughout the spectrum of fractals, provides the comprehensive foundation. It is complete with the addition of the correlary I stated.

    For the slowest fractal, the P,V "shows" at a glance. So we know where in that cycle we are. I creatd scoring mostly for that and the adition of the third variable (A/D) was simply a fineness control to give 8 segments rather than just four. To spend 50 years observing and doing how to trade and then creating a bunch of tranference mechanisms is a good effort to complete. Which is for observing and doing and which is for transference?

    The unessential falls away by the dominance of the essential it turns out.

    I do prevent B people from getting it as you know.

    As you let the market speak more and do "look for" less (just not do it, except to recognize occurances as a "matter of fact"), you will not deal with formations (rules associated with them) and whipsaw (will be the opposite and a way to continue money velocity instead of sidelining).

    I will comment on each of your questions next. Use this to reread my colored post.
     
    #194     May 3, 2005
  5. #195     May 3, 2005
  6. Trendlines do work.....question is, which ones do and which ones don't???? This typical forum gives false information to people who are vulnerable by stating absolute advice which is usually absolutely incorrect....
     
    #196     May 3, 2005
  7. Team B bench warmer here. I am reluctant to sound like a broken record, but in the context of Jack, it is appropriate. Nowhere here have I seen anything but ASSERTIONS that SCT works. I am not saying that it doesn't. Perhaps it does but is so complex that it is not even amenable to proof. But I have tested codable pieces of it, and those pieces tested with negative expectation. And, lest we forget, we saw Nwbprop et al. fail miserably to profit from it in low stress paper trading with Jack's tutelage. And as to Jack's so-called "call" at the last FOMC, it was incorrect, as compared to my own. If we lesser mortals can abase ourselves posting our embarrassing little 4-5 tick trades, surely Jack can share a string of his 3X daily range trades. Hindsight is to foresight as hindskin is to foreskin.
     
    #197     May 3, 2005
  8. I think that is true. I do believe it can be done but not by us ordinary mortals. I know a couple of traders who make more than the daily range pretty regular. I have no illusions about achieving sct but I have found using volume as Jacks suggests to be quite useful and am hoping to get better at it. I did see a daily statement awhile back in which he did make a lot of trades mostly for just a point or two. I wish I had a link but it was quite awhile ago and I have forgotten where I saw it.
     
    #198     May 3, 2005
  9. jem

    jem

    You know what I find annoying when your brother calls you tells you he is shorting 1168 because it is on the daily and weekly downtrend lines. And you do not take the trade.
     
    #199     May 3, 2005
  10. I am going to parse this briefly. this means I am on your turf in your environment and commenting specifically on your observations. All this is a positive preamble.



     
    #200     May 3, 2005