FWIW market currently ran from this breakout to 10188 over 60 points from breakout and is at prior horizontal resistance.
you state "my statement will always remain true", however that's hardly a logical or empirical way to prove your statement. maybe when i was 5 years old i was proving my statements by adding the words "and it's true" at the end of the statement. i use them for prediction all the time. it works, i consistently make money and consistently save money (i.e. don't take losing trades) thanks to trendlines. i have also explained i how use them, earlier in the thread. i also posted and referred to a few examples. for me, as i explained before, they are a very effective predictor of reversal or of price halt (consolidation). and if i foresee that a trendline will break, then i can safely predict a strong uninterrupted price movement. of course they must be used in combination with understanding the price structure. think of the trendline as a "point where price will react strongly". how it will react, you must then rely on the price structure itself. you cannot have a chart with only trendlines, and no price or time visible on the chart, aye? in my opinion one can never avoid understanding the price dynamics, if he ever wants to read the market with any accuracy. yet i use no other indicators what so ever. time, price, volume and trendlines only. i try to use fibs but they serve me very little. other than that, i will second prash454 and say that this thread has already said all that it needed to say. have a nice weekend 50
======= True Maestro ,which translated means teacher; but its not about prediction its about probablities.
^^^ Prash454,454; I believe one of the best ways to look @ trendlines; get a free 10 day subscription to Investors Business Daily, thier 50 day ma[trendlines] are predrawn. Its also in better librarys ; the 3 or so ways to double check figures/numbers on 50dma. Or another free way to; cnbc.com type in like QQQQ click ,profile. 50 dma=$36.4, therefore QQQQQ is still in med downtrend.[QQQQ Price below ma like water seal below polar bear] And while i believe cnbcom 50 day ma is actually fairly accurate; thier TV charts are apparently drawn by elementary ed kids, and thier average volume tends to be WAY OFF!!!
maestro and others wondering how trendlines can add value to your trading: Please note that the charts that I put up a few posts back were REAL TIME. Trendlines don't have to be used just to trade with the trend or trade reversals. As 50cent stated, the lines represent possible S/R areas where price may halt or stall. If price may halt or stall then this does set up a possible/probable near future event. And, as 50cent mentioned, this combined with understanding some dynamics of the market that you are trading, and nothing else at all, may be utilized by a trader to profit.
Staying open minded in trading is very important in my humble opinion. First, do you believe in breakouts ? Do you believe that if price can not get through an area as shown by past price action that once it does get through that area there is a potential to move further in that same direction ? Well, trendlines can represent these "areas" that price can not get through and once it does........ I'm sure you see this concept. That's it.
You make some nice points. I looked at both of your charts. I would have annoted your first chart in a manner that showed how the path was going to develop that did occur. While others than you feel the thread has exhausted the topic, I can see that you recognize that only the surface has been scratched. The several who are making money are fairly specific about the the utility that they find in using trendlines and the associated channels Since the late 50's, I have depended upon channels for all types of trading that I do. By making the list below, my intention is to , perhaps, open a few windows for those who want to improve their money velocity (rate of making money) and those who still are building their minds to be able to monitor and analyze what is there to see for proper decision making and action. 1. Channels from trendlines most be projected ASAP. Then extended as the market continues to operate at that operating point. 2. Channels from trendlines can be used to eliminate risk for traders who are progressing from beginner to intermediate to expert. They are, in fact, the primary judgement device for risk management. 3. Channels overlap and in doing so, when they do, enable traders to take maximum profits for that interval and take the next position to continue to accumulate more profits. (Opitimizing the use of market time.) 4. The volatility of the market varies. Channels can always be managed to accomodate volatility changes. If fact, changes in volatility are most easily observed in the context of channel axtrapolation. 5. trenldine based channels provide the most rational basis for extending market "know how" and understanding. 6. price formations fit into two categories: those that occur within channels and those formed using channels to complete the segments of the formations. 7. there is a heiracrchy of channels in play at all times. Knowing and using that heirachy helps a trader to maximize money velocity. One of the keys to enhansing any equitiy curves steepness is to operate within the channels that can make the most money per unit time (see 2.) 8. continually annotating channels is the fastest way to build the mind for making money. This is, in fact, the fastest way from your current status to "sports memory" for trading at highest efficiencies. The ratio of traces (before and after) in the brain is exponential rather than linear; therfore, using the cardinal market consideration (visually speaking) to exponentially develop is the critical path. 9. Using trendline channels is one of the most effective ways to obliterate past mental errors in mind building. a six lane highway of traces can obliterate most any trading irrational building. There are exceptions. ftrader, recently, showed how trading externalities built an orreversable trap in his life. He, logically, retired from discussion and moved back into his cultural mindset somewhere else. 10. the fact that tredline channels operate within other channels is an orthagonal concept related to families of mathematical expressions. Families behave in one way, fractal "nesting" operates in another manner. there is overlap. The overlap allows you to use a "sharing" mental concept to extrapolate learning channels fractal analysis in a family of expressions context. 11. Adding to price channels the channel concept for volume is a major synergistic advantage. 50cent and others have this advantage down cold. The cardinal theme of this is that you always know what is next in price from the present formations of volume. And this knowledge is directly in the context of the extrapolated trendline existing price channel. This item (11.) has a subset equal to the first 10 items cited above. What I am suggesting is the consideration of an example. It was presented by someone here who has a comprehensive terminology for personal development. It involves three components. a. gaining knowlege from authorities (he cited four books). b. doing primary reasearch. c. doing secondary research. From him I learned what these three things are. It turns out I did them informally for about 50 years. In one of my buildings here I have about 25% of it filled with boxes. (when I did a TFSE on my corporations, I took to my rsidence four straight truck loads of personal research stuff...lol. Filled all the box stall in my horse barn....(but i had bought another mennonite barn and had a crew dismantle and move it...so I could have an operating barn.) What transpires when a person purposefully goes through a, b, and c. A mind is built that operates and is effective. The building of the mind generally is a by product and not a conscious primary effort. But what if a person took the time to learn about himself as part of his life style. Learning in a medical sense and a psychological sense is a minimum that can be done. It does lead to needing malpractice protection as part of practical training because of licencsng, etc in the formal context, but that is part of knowing how things work in life. a. If you use the above list and annotate it from the books recommended here, you get only a little ways own the road. I have done that job over the years as formal texts are created in these categories. b. primary stuff is the hardest because it is so difficult to learn to monitor the markets. As I read ET, I feel that almost no one does primary research here. It is unaffordable as people tell it here. secondly, there are few people who have any skills to do it. Thirdly it is not written about mostly anywhere (that takes us to c. c. secondary research. I have lectured at most business schools, etc. Still today I am a finalist judge of the annual business school competitive 36 hour shoot out. So obviously there is an alternative shortcut to really getting this stuff down to make a lot of money fast. For ET, there is the eternal landmine crew out there fucking things up all the time so some alternatives are moot. We all know of the niave turds that screw around endlessly. Then there are the intentional dumbies who roll on incessantly as AGM's (attention getting Mechanism users). In the face of this noise though, there is a very rapid way to do things. Collaberation is what is called for. My list is not the scope and bounds of the opportunity. For sure there are many many items that can be synthesized. from this thread alone, I discovered that i should be making tapes. the two posts of the charts a couple of pages back cemented the idea. I am going to use my architecture computers to montior my trading computor bank. I shall have a way soon of making tapes that show the extrapolation and i will have commentary in advance of the actual unfolding that will happen. This is not a, b, or c. It is more just creating study tapes for building minds. i have advocated repitionof ideas at no risk for years and noone does it, of course. Today's world is immediate no effort satisfaction or not gaining the prize. People who have not experienced wealth do not know its value and cannot strive to be wealthy. People with wealth wind up in a self selecting group and cannot relate to others... At the end of life my rules have changed. Personnally, I hope a lot of people learn how to make money. It is one big shortcut to getting help to where it is needed. Collaboration is the name of the game. Learn that as soon as possible. Different experience is what creates peer relationships. Around that table the younger people can contribute their fresh gifts to older guys who have made all the mistakes and learned from them.
Jack, Your left side of the channel thoughts are really, really important. Thanks. I'm working on appreciating this realtime without the use of lines. I've been extracting more dough with less stress.
As you learn to take the left side exits you are using the long diagonal of the trend channel parallelogram for determining what the potential of the trend is. Its like saying: "why wait for any right side trendline confirmation a long time after the extreme of the potential profit can be made. the leading indicator of price underthese circumstances is volume. A coarse appraisal of volume shows you that during repeated price traverses of a channel, there is a simple volume characteristic. That is volume is increasing from right to left (the direction of the channel) and volume is decreasing on left to right (the retrace portion). As you trade a given fractal it becomes evident that there is a possibility to trade each traverse. A way to move from fractal to fractal to get this optimised is to do about three trend channels on three fractals. Then you pick the one to trade upon that is most rewarding in money velocity over the trading day. Your comment on relaxation is very significant in terms of mind building. You can see by now that you are reinforcing a repeated process of making more profits per trade cycle. Since this is exponential in trace building, you are seeing that time is somewhat different as you monito and analyze. That is you have many parallel traces now that represent this believe in your mind. As they are side by side and are not just straight paths, what is happening is that you are now beginning to jump from one trace to another and also biochemically greasing and establishing interconnectedness. So you mentally take the trips more efficiently now. That is you get there sooner in the same effort cycle. This makes it appear that the market is slowing down. You can see by the increasing steepness of your equity curve that, in fact the market is, effectively speeding up in giving you profits over the time spent. Once you get about three levels of observation possible, it is like zooming. You continually zoom to the right market action place and make a decision after traces monitor and analyze that zoomed to action spot. What is nice about all of this is that the market is always the same in its nature and you have found out how to work precisely in parallel with what is important and nothing else. Your mind is very cognicent of where it wants to go and get the sensory inputs. Having your computer screen set up for this llows your sensory system to "zoom". what naturally happens as a consequence of our fight or flee system is that you develop a mental standard for making money. You learn to "fight" because you are capable and not in the presence of something better than you survival wise. fighting is a rewarding experience humanwise. It continually prepares and conditions you for better fighting. The deep benefit of this is that you trun to generating a set of brain biochemicals that are enablers of the streamlining of the parallel traces. And you get some significant links to primal parts of your brain. finally by this honing, there is a major transition. It is this: you begin to make what you do well an instinctive part of your existance. This is the "sports memory" part of your brain and, when in place, your mind. There is no picking up traces built elsewhere and dumping them into the different location of your sports memory. It is a building process done by duplication using another part of your brain. A 19 step process turns into a 4 step process and the bichmicals produced are a very narrow set. i mentioned the chicago great in basketball who was usually uncoachable because the coaches were not in a place for empowering. Jordon had the unique characteristic of using sight and sound in parallel. ET traders probably cannot grasp this. But Jordon took his potential and realized it by deploying both. As a younger person I dealt with death and people dying in a team setting. The rule is do not speak if you have nothing to say. But by team work, a group can use sound and sight all the time to keep a person alive in deep trauma. I was a heart guy on the team. I spoke the words to convey how the cavity was working or not working. Another guy ran the drains and pumps and the bagger ran the space around a lot of the cavity. If you trade just visually, then get with it and add another sense. Take what you have just gained and recognized that you have it. And add sound. You will compress this transition you are biginning greatly. Speak your mind and talk to the market in response to WHAT IT SAYS TO YOU. This sets up another mind building avenue that leads to the initation of building sports memory. You will learn to be a michael jordon who could talk and hear basketball as well as he could visualize it. Getting to sports memory where the show is run on instinct can be done purposefully just as well as by accident. Its just like keeping the heart cavity in a state so the heart can be pumped. by auditorily describing its state and how the fix is being put in you get more than seeing the body and just feeling it with your hands during compression and release. You make it work by making your mind know how to make it work when it is still possible. Who cares about what people say is not working or is not true. They are just speaking of where they are on the outside of things. i liked it when they invented the PC and the web. It added some additional stuff to the situation. Inventing futures indexes was a great idea too. leverage is a great invention. trading using sports memory is even more fun. Let a genius invent a violin.... let anther genius write music for it after he understands it. enter the player of the music, a genius as well. notice how many gneuises are appearing. well we have the market entities: we have the markets and their rules; we have sports memory for playing music and basketball. Its there for making money too.