It appears you take a fairly traditional approach to trendlines... At what point did you draw tour major down trendline??It appears you do not use lows for support and highs for resistance.in fact,it appears as if you use opens for support and i am nor sure about resistance lines.. Do you incorporate candle patteren analysis into your decision making?? thanks
Here are some practical stated situations that imply some work that could be done by each person. Further the next person mentioned could pick up those results and use them to go further as well. At the same time, by doing this work, each person could get off the topical button he is pressing as some sort of demand or requirement that another person do work for him and be at his command. I am making these suggestions simply as a consequence of furthering th discussion and because I have been through each process and I, pragmatically, use what is revealed by doing the work. what if dragoon2 could complete the backtesting and by way of that get the answers as to what signals trendlines (or LRC's), their associated channels, their internal formations and the associated volatility shifts generate for optimum usage. He could use the energy he is now spending searching for the proofs that he states cover the subject. What if mparkernys started using the appropriate signals dragoon2 discovered; would it create more than one doubling of his current preformance? would it improve things to the point of an order of magnitude? Would mparkernys then have a basis of comparison with what he does currently that would reveal to him that it is possible to iteratively refine what he is set on now? He could use the energy he now uses to explain to and pursuade others. What if bearbelly looked at mparkenys and spyderstrader's methods of annotation and saw they contained dragoon2's signal list. After looking, what if bearbelly reannotated his chart and then made a compare and contrast self report on how and what he could do to annotate his monitoring to make all the money that is there as signalled. He could use the energy he now expends getting proofs that meet his terms. I posted a continuum of performance as related to trendlines. what if taowave put a before and after line on the chart for each of the above. Lastly, he could determine the extent to where each of these people got to in comparison to where he doen't think I am on the line or even where he is on the line. In trading there is no future, but only the past and the present which I call NOW. During NOW there are only five decisions to make: HOLD, WAIT, REVERSE, ENTER and EXIT. I use hold and reverse as a consequence of recognising that at all time I have to remain on the right side of the market. This is a direct consequence of knowing that making money is only done by being in the market during times of price change and optimally all times during price change. I am in the market and sitting at a price that is located to the left for the trend line. I know that trenlines overlap and at the time they do I know that the price is concurrently to the left of each of the lines. During this relatively long interval, I watch my price as the future moves into the present. at some point the old trendline passes into the past and I am left in a situation where my price is to the left of the trend line. I do my holds over and over following a routine of monitoring data sets, analyzing by comparing the data set to a conclusion selected from among a finite set of conclusions, making the decision that uniquely and specificallycorresponds to one of the five (this is a small number to choose from) possibilities (in caps above). If I have a conclusion that is different than a prior conclusion I have to take that different action. If it is not different then I remain in the situation without changing things. Monitoring, only, involves the senses which are coupled to the emotional centers. My emotion, largely is the feeling of successfully completeing a sufficient data set. Emotions are not related to analysis, decision making nor taking timely actions, all of which occur in now. Shifting from the conventional entry/exit orthodoxy which is very common in the financial industry, to a paradigm based upon extraction of capital optimumly is a big step. the primary focus of this type of optimum extraction is the place where there are two concurrent trend lines and the trader's price is to the left of both trendlines. Within that locus there is an optimum action (reversal) durring the period of concurrent trendlines. I am using NLP here to give you some pictures of people doing things, making changes in their lives and belief system (for the better) And then I am bearing down with pictures that are more and more focussed. I am giving persons the opportunity to "see". That is what NLP does. When I get banned here it is usually the result of giving a person a picture. Today you got to read some pictures that you have never ever seen before (spyder excepted). You almost have no choice to not see the pictures. That is a fact all IQ levels included. You were looking at a price located within a space with a pattern. that pattern is codable, visualizable, quantifyable and NEW to you all. It it the view of overlapped trendlines. At NOW they are there... As the future moves into the present they do one of the BIGGIE of TA : CONVERGENCE and the dominance of one is handed off to the other. What would happen if dragoon, dragged and then park, unparked and bear bore down. They would all get to see the overlapping. For taowave it is all unbelievable. Being unresponsive (unbelievable is a non response) is part of some people's nature. FTT (failure to traverse) is where the overlap begins as is pointed out to you by spyder's charts.
Ill chime in. An object in motion tends to stay in motion, an object at rest tends to stay at rest. A trend is a trend becuse it is going in a particular driection consistently over time. If it goes in 1 driection 4 out of every 5 days..or even 3 out of evey 5 days...than the odds are greater than 50/50. take the play over time (until the trend ends) and you will consistently make money. Nothing can predict the future...but i would also say that over time, nothing is a better pedictor than a trend line...IF an instument acts in a trending manner.
Jack,thank you for the input....It is not that I find this all "unbelievable",it is more that until I have seen tangable evidence(track record) that these theories work in reality,i am a skeptic. I do not doubt that you and Spyder can be very profitable trading these methods,otherwise i wouldnt have given this thread a monents thought. i have always been a seeker of the miraculous,be it in trading or in the arts I have studied and trained in.On another level,i do believe that within the human body there exists an energy pathway where ones inner life force,chi channels thru the meridians.. There are those who believe chi can be mobilised and projected.i have heard many glorious claims,and in all my "encounters",I have never remotely experienced it....to say the least...i do believe it exists,but thats where it begins and ends until i experience first hand... The very same goes for trading..I have been fortunate enough to have traded on the exchange floors,worked at Solly in the heyday and had the privelage to be exposed to some of the greatest traders in the world. I have also spent time in Asia and brazil and been around some exceedingly talented martial artisits.I have studied soft esoteric arts,and i have studied brazilian jiu-Jutsu,judo and traditional karate... I can only believe in what I know works,or what my belief system lets me be open to....I have found in the arts and in tradng,its just way too f-ing painful(and hazardous to ones health) to do otherwise....
taowave, If you look back....page 167....I think....I show a couple of charts....with and without Trendlines. You will see....I do something I call....Walking the Trendline. Overall....Price Patterns....and....some....Candle patterns are important....but not all. Don't have much time right now....may explain more later. VSTscalper
I think we are in 100% agreement,with the possible exception of using the wording "predictive".... Would you say trend followers who employ N bar breakouts view breakouts as predictive?Or would you say the vast majority feel it is impossible to predict the market,trends do exist,and the tails are much larger than a normal ditribution would imply?? The IF sentence at the end of your post is interesting..Would you please elaborate??
Thats a tough place that you describe. It is all very real too. The nature/nurture thing is always around and where you have thrived has both components too. In the final analysis, a person consciously and unconsciously protects himself. On the other hand, it is commonly known that if a person is able to identify a challenge, he is usually able to address it or turn it into something he can begin to deal with as a beginning. A lot of people do see challenges and they let them be in the space and they get the opportunity to not deal with them over and over. In the financial industry, there are many many niches where people go about their business and more or less meet the expectations that fit those niches. Apples and oranges may or may not be compared. It is not likely there will be hybrids of apples and oranges or tigers and sharks. Over my life, the adversarially stuff hasn't had a great appeal. What happened for whatever reasons was that immersion and making the best of things happened a lot. Nature and sharing in in it, then having toys to play in nature. I just loved simming, running hiking white water canoeing following rivers for 100,s of miles, sailing all over the place, flying gliders all over the place, etc.... Having enough money all my life has been fun. Working my way through college during college was a close call...lol But after that I switched to using money to make money. The neatest part was compressing the time it took. At that point it became "unbelievable" (not in the sceptic sense because I don't have those personal limitations (probably because of the nature connection---nature is always way beyond its enhabitors). It was simply the fact that in a trading cycle I could (any person could) make what was ordinarily made in a year by the conventional orthodox world (the one where you saw the great stuff done). My broker's my parents my banking relatives on my wife's side, at first, didn't like what was going on. Later, with multiple accounts it was "unbelievable" to the SEC guys with their computers and even the lawyers at HQ of my local broker branch. Those guys fought through the citations to get them deleted sooner or later. All those inventions made it all so crazy too. One day spyder said to me something like " you were dialing all the numbers but the last one" and I said "yeah I was letting go of the dial by taking my finger out of the hook". Everyone's been around and has had experiences. I have too. Barging at 32A off Oyster Bay is what T J Watson (Palavan) does but not me; I have the tide tables, a stop watch and yarn in the sails I'm flying. LOL. It's not business competition its partnering with nature to be at the right place at the right time. Of course, there is the finish line too but its more about nature than out flanking others that wins division boat races. I trade to have the boat. The guys downtown run companies or brokerages to have the boats. I follow nature more or less to trade at optimum (hold and reverse is like tacking). And the guys downtown go for edges and entries and exits: they are optimizing transaction costs...lol.... So I have beliefs and they are based upon almost 50 years of experience where I have continually iteratively refined my knowledge and skills as I experience sharing trading with the markets. I strive to extract the potential that is there. Liz came over to see the GROW take a pop whicle I am typing here. We are training her estate broker this month. They are learning the 30 minute volume catenary today, too. They haven't seen the 2.5% per day as yet. We haven't had a day that poor so far. Monday might do it though. What does striving for 50 years do for a person's mind? especially in a partnership to share responsibilities with the market. A PC is neat. It saves phone calls maybe or something. 50 years of either drawing charts and annotating or letting the computer do it gave me what you can't experience or add to your beliefs, ever. You can't have it by your personal choices and how your being helps make that decision as you have explained to eveyone who reads you. I chose to have anything that I could become conscious of and it is one terrific place to keep adventuring from. I am a happy camper. Actually I'm an unbelievably happy camper.
You sound like a happy camper and that is all too rare..You mentioned Oyster Bay.I am currently out on the Eastern End of Long island..Should you venture out this way,let me know...
Okay back to the fun part. Your annotated chart is informative. As a exit I chose 12:12 plus or minus and I was informed the price aggriegated to 44.27+. You can put a blob there. from 21:12 on I have cash (or were I to reverse I have a short on. lets look at the trendline overlap. Use your purple lines as the trendlines. You drew them when you did. I am a person who draws traverses within channels and I draw ASAP. I exitied because the volatility expansion (going out of the left channel line was not sustained by 12:12. this data set had many elements inclduing the non sustaining place of price. You do not have my lines on your graph but my graph is also available and a compare can be made. a sell for me is a divorce and the stock goes in the tneured pile which is a subset of my universe. the stock is out of the picture at that point. Lets look at the chart from an SCT picture where the action would have been a reversal instead. I would have been doing the min-max thing at that time. I do a thing to get a price that is concurrently the best exit and the best entry on the other side of the market. An FTT has occurred as soon as the pullback on the traverse channel cannot resume and get to the left side of the traverse. It is like going into slo-mo-tion with respect to the purple trendlines. the retrace to the existing trend trendline is a non dominant traverse and it has a trendline that is formed from two consecutive or three at worst consecutive bars. this beginning of the retrace CAN trun into the purple line that you drew. I use bars you use candles and a way of picking points that is a little different and who cares. I am drawing at the time I am optimizing. I needed a buck on GROW today to get 2.5%. I got it. I got it by doing the buy at the right time. getting the right buy on GROW is identical to getting the right reverse on this chart. i keep sweeping and getting "sufficient" data sets and annotating as required ASAP. all of this is foreign to all but spyder at this point. Spyder is correctly asking others to work and work piecee by piece to be able to synthesize being able , at some point, to be able to collect SCT level data sets. here I am at an SCT level and looking for the "right" price which has two characteristics which are outstanding: the best sell price and the best entry price for a short (it is also a sell price it turns out). When I am able to start the OVERLAP of the of the trendlines I am at the place where two bars are in play and I may have to take the "scond chance" to get the price. that is, when I have sufficiency to draw the new treaverse trendline I am taking the second chance to do the reverse. the only thing that moves the action to a place sooner in time is the details of medium and fine sweeps which are leading the second chance. Conversely, if I act before the sceond chance that locks in the up coming bare as point 3 of the three points required to make the trendline of the retrace. this is not rocket science but it is in a world where a lot of knowledge and skills are being applied. thisstuff is done all the time and in daja vu type settings. I refer to it as a "drill" since it is done over and over and over as a routine and part of the time an action happens. Once you have purple overlap THe traverse becomes purple for me usually so I have purple on the retrace so to speak. here you see price residing between the two trendlines and it is always on the left of each trendline. One trendline is beginning the other is extinguishing. If you are making money where this is always the case even if only 2 or three bars are in use to make all trendlines possible then you are making what I call high velocity money. This is a multiple of the daily H -L of any commoditiy no mater which. because I see all of this stuff happen on a leading indicator of ES (which is YM) I annotate YM first and then I see to do a deja vu on ES and pickoff the exact turning price. this is something many peoipple choose to not allow themselves to first experience and then later to get to believe as a consequence of experience. It all hinges on how important it is for a person to choose to remain inert and to not do anything. It is veery important for most people and it is so important because then they can continue to stay in the space that they occupy to avoid pain. It is a very powerful survival tactic from heredity. It requires moving from nature to nurture. they are syaing "I will not allow myself to be nurtured" since they have learned the hard way that nurturing does not work for them.
Mr. Hershey, I have not read any of your comments in a long time. I didn't realize how correct you are. Your comments seem to be just what I have arrived at. When i read your comments, I just say to myself, "I am correct and Jack tells me so". My conclusions are pretty much what you are talking about. A real shame that I didn't read your stuff and understand years ago. Maybe the process had to be normally painful and too long, with my getting finally to the point that i understand how simple it really is to understand what the chart and my limited indicators are saying to me, or anyone else willing to be open minded. Emini daytrading only for me and it is not rocket science. cheers