"Do trendlines work?" + Confluence of support... SP 4200?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Scataphagos, Sep 23, 2023.

  1. You may have missed the point. Yesterday, price reversed off so called S prior to reaching the actual target. And that's what frequently happens. Price overshoots or undershoots an actual level.

    If you were early yesterday, you would have gotten fleeced. If you were late, you missed the ride or the optimum entry point. Of course, yesterday was a non-stop rally with plenty of second chances, but it's not always like that.

    So, that's the part that requires skill. If it doesn't require any skill or quick reactions, you should be easily able to demonstrate it with a live post (quicker than your average posts) or a chart showing your entries.

    Thank you.

    PS: I caught the bounce, but first got stopped out B/E on a short position before reversing long.
     
    #21     Sep 28, 2023
  2. 1."Reversed...before reaching actual target". You may have a target in your mind, but the market doesn't have one.

    2. I never said "doesn't require quick reactions".

    KISS is about uncomplicating the thinking/process. Simple indications, simple triggers and rules. (No complex patterns... no confirmation conditions... which is a good thing because contrary to conventional wisdom, there is no such thing as "confirmation".) "Is the market buying or selling"? How do you know? Has the market just changed from buying-to-selling or vice versa"? How do you know? "See it, act on it.... with a stop in case it fools you or you screwed up".
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2023
    #22     Sep 28, 2023
  3. PPC

    PPC

    Nothing wrong with keeping it simple, the simpler the better, everyone approaches things differently.

    Nevertheless, I tend to agree with @ Laissez Faire that price often can overshoot / undershoot the levels.

    I think catching bounces on Daily TF (time frame) can be bit of a lottery and bit hard with tight stops on that TF.

    I do it occasionally, but for me there needs to be other factors in play as well.

    Most of the time I’d also need a pattern on intraday TF (at least something like 3 drives for aggressive entry before I’d step in front of anything, or preferably a reversal pattern on M5 for a more conservative entry before I’d participate.

    If the price overshoots and traps traders, then those can be very good trades.

    I didn’t participate on the indices yesterday because I didn’t see any buying pressure.

    Even though the market is due for a bounce, right now I have no idea where it’s going to go (on EOD TF), it still looks weak and there is lots of damage in the individual stocks.
     
    #23     Sep 28, 2023
  4. destriero

    destriero

    @Xela, only pikers focus on chart periodicity.
     
    #24     Sep 28, 2023
  5. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    So you are a long only "trader" huh?

    Which to me is akin to a "fair weather" sports fan. Team is winning, go team. Team is losing, pffft to them.
     
    #25     Sep 28, 2023
    Spooz Top 2 likes this.
  6. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Sold off during Globex. Shortly ago came back to new intraday high @ 4228.25 with VPOC @ 4327.00
     
    #26     Sep 28, 2023
  7. I hadn't before thought about the specific definition of KISS as it applies to Price TA. I like this. :)

    Why is "simple" so important? Because everything which is more complicated is more difficult to keep track of and execute. It's essential to focus on "simple reasons" to put your money at risk where you can use a tight stop.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2023
    #27     Sep 28, 2023
    themickey likes this.
  8. destriero

    destriero


    You sound like a noob.
     
    #28     Sep 28, 2023
  9. You say this and that's the right idea. Then, you go on and describe the "additional things you need to see" (aka "complications") for you to execute the play.

    An old timer once said, "Simplify your method as much as possible. When you've done that, simplify again".
     
    #29     Sep 28, 2023
    Spooz Top 2 likes this.
  10. themickey

    themickey

    The retail trader believes for the most part; the more complicated the better.
    They add a plethora of lines and indicators.
    They may run multi monitors and computers.
    The truth is, finding simplicity is difficult.
    For some reason, the brain wants to complicate, and they slide down a slippery slope.
     
    #30     Sep 28, 2023