"Do trendlines work?" + Confluence of support... SP 4200?

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Scataphagos, Sep 23, 2023.

  1. 1 Rising bottoms line @ 4200

    2. Backtest of 4200 breakout?

    3. 200 Day Moving Average... 4190 today (obscured by blue lines).

    Watch for 4200 next week. Technicians should take a shot at this, and probably a big one, if 4200 tests/holds.

    FWIW...

    KISS, baby!


    sat.PNG
     
  2. PPC

    PPC


    I don't think technicians would take a big shot within the next week at the 4200 level, because if the market drops there without pulling back, then the move into it would be too impulsive.


    upload_2023-9-24_15-58-14.png
     
  3. Trading with TA is properly about "recognizing logical risk/reward possibilities and trading them with a tight stop".

    My suggestion falls into the notion of "trade with your eyes... trade what you SEE"... and not what you think/hope/feel.

    You know, both my recognized possibility and your view could be right (or wrong)... just not at the same time.
     
    Last edited: Sep 24, 2023
    SimpleMeLike and Spooz Top 2 like this.
  4. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    CFD levels are not $SPX cash nor ES Futs levels which is what technicians watch.
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  5. Hello Scataphagos,

    nice chart
     
  6. maxinger

    maxinger

    https://www.istockphoto.com/videos/money-falling-from-sky

    Lately, ES and European index futures (and perhaps crude oil) are moving in tandem.
    Down it goes.
    This downtrend started 1.5 weeks ago.
    Soon it has to take a rest at whatever level / band.


    PS - I rarely draw lines.
    I last time I drew S-R lines was a decade ago.
     
    Last edited: Sep 26, 2023
    PPC likes this.
  7. September is statistically a weak month in the stock market, so I warned the perma-bulls about this prior to the first trading day in September:

    ES Journal - 2023/2024

    Chart posted on the 4th of September:

    [​IMG]

    As of yesterday's Close on the 25th of September, SPX nearly filled the open gap at 4298.86.

    A weak September often (but not always) ends the month near the lows, so we might have a chance at the next open gap below at 4221.02 - which co-incides with the 200MA and a channel low.

    As for October, I have no idea, but it was a strong month for the last preceding years.
     
    PPC likes this.
  8. For some reason I was not able to upload the current chart (file size too big?).
     
  9. PPC

    PPC

    Whether or not SPX will hold the key first level is now somewhat dependent whether or not NASDAQ will hold its own support.


    upload_2023-9-26_22-36-39.png
     
  10. destriero

    destriero

    Awesome. Some salient, sage advice from xela. Oanda charting?
     
    #10     Sep 26, 2023