As long as you are good at risk management and money management, you can make money even by taking the opposite trade direction. As far as it is about the guarantee of making money, then sorry to say, there are obviously no guarantees in the market. It is unpredictable and you will have to deal with it that way only.
Risk management is the foundation and secondary. Taking position is primary.. Good entry will make money more often. Bad entry will lose money. The tricky part is - sometimes the bad entry makes money...that inculcates a bad habit. If a strategy can’t predict correctly most of the time - it should stop trading.
Yes, however you could outdo this by trading on margin, for example 1 futures contract like MES. The thing is profits don't scale either in that case
I honestly think some days I should stick a "Do not touch!" sticker over both Buy and Sell........ Hey ho.....
If you do that test a few times, you will have each time other traders who are the winners as you use random data. Which one will you then follow? Reminds me of people who optimize a MA on past data and use the best MA for trading. But each trade the optimal MA is changing, so they are always running behind.
My conclusions: this is the first "profession" were no knowledge is needed (according to you) you have no clue what trading is even the biggest idiot can make millions without even knowing what he is doing (according to you) If you would have knowledge about trading you might at least try to optimize the random signals to improve your chances. This would implicate knowledge about trading that will be needed. You cannot just reverse trade bad signals to make them good. There are a lot of factors that makes a system work. Leverage, where are the stops, where are the take profits... Just one example: If a trader is constantly losing, maybe putting the stops further away (because he is always stopped out) might make that system very profitable. If you would reverse that system you probable will lose much more then by moving the stops. You will have to analyze each separate signal to see the specifics of it. Not each loss is based on the same problem.
No, I just gave an example in my previous post that shows that all depends on a lot more information about each trade. In my sample reversing the trade would not work because the onkly reason why he is losing can be that the stops are too close. So he can theoretically be always right about the direction, but is too afraid to stand the heat.