Discussion in 'Trading' started by Corso482, Oct 7, 2003.
Or do stocks lead the indices?
I voted for stocks leading because it seems that more often certain stocks lead the indices, but I think both happen. Certain stocks at certain times lead indicies while others follow, and at other times the indicies lead.
Depends on what stocks you're referring to. The indices can't move at all without a concomitant movement in at least some stocks.
The reason I posted the poll is because in my backtesting, I've found that my strategy has better results when I first take into account the indices direction.
This leads me to think that the indices lead stocks, big cap stocks anyway.
Not exactly. It's next to impossible for an index to lead those stocks which have the heaviest weighting in the index. To do so would mean that the heavy=hitters are just sitting there, if not declining, while all the minnows are rocketing.
It's easy for your eyes to glaze over when looking at indexes, particularly if you maintain charts of all the major market indexes, sector indexes, group indexes, etc. To stay alert, determine the most heavily weighted stocks in each index, say the first five. Then monitor those five. Whatever those five do, the index will do, and if you're not interested in trading any of those five, you will have at least some indication of what the minnows will do.
I don't think the cash indexes can lead stocks since they're just a composite of the underlying issues. The futures indices lead stocks as that's the whole point of futures (do in futures what you're planning on doing in the future in the underlying instrument). If you're planning on selling a basket of stocks, you sell the futures first and then sell the stocks. When done you buy back the futures.
I would be interesting to see the opinions on the question "do the futures lead the stocks, or do the futures lead the idicies?"
I would assume he was referring to futures indices since you would normally trade the futures indices and not the cash.
Futures move stocks, stocks move (cash) indices. Don't trade off indices.
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