I am not sure if you are addressing my last post, but if you are, the answer is yes, and not only do I think it will be so, I actually can say, with a very high degree of probability, that the majority of successful traders, will fully agree with me. Those that are not successful, will naturally argue, as they will find it extremely hard to accept that they are wrong, even when it is handed to them on a silver plate. If you are not addressing my last post, then someone else will answer you no doubt !
fearless9 If 51% is realistic to you then so be it. Let us all hope that you do not hobble yourself with constrained thinking. regards f9 --------------------------------------------------- Multiple compelx problem*s 1.Author doktrinal send to broker only money ,which won by paper game trading contest .(can loss only he*s time ,not credit ,privat saving,foreign money &) 1.to date won 2222 euro by trader2005 -payed with assistance germany SEC 2. 36000 euro by etrade worlcup 2006 -not payed ,as author avoid to signature long-life adv. agreement after won 3. 2000 $ by marketzar.com,payed with assitance Court of IOWA 4. realtimeforex.de 5000 euro 1 price , system crashed result 292% was deleted .Company public accepted error (result to end of contest was best) ,but not payed .FX not regulated in Swiss ! To perform Grand prix by contest in germany (125000$ not taxed through Germany law ) must be better as 10000 competitos .All from leading group speculated with real moeny accounts . IN USA was equal contest by http://www.beatthestreetgame.com/ but only for USA residents . Author point of view - If any operator performs multiple price money win by paper game and real money contest (as example www.fxcm.com king of the mini ,best result observed 855% in month on capital 3000$) ,than that would be good grounds to think that this operator in retail sector better as 10000 another's and would have a chance to make from 100000 $ price money through years 2-5 mln $ Best wish ...
This is without question false. It's a nice thought and a very warm fuzzy feeling for those who have found no edge, but it's simply not the case. This can be proven in any of a million ways, but I've done it many times testing various entry methods for % winners using something simple like a number of bars exit. Most entries, as one would guess, are near 50%. However, not all! That is not to say that one cannot use random entry and generate a profitable strategy.
There are 87000 ET members. So according to you there are 8700 traders with edge posting on ET alone.
what is mean by consistent sizing? does it mean that you take your whole position right away or enter over time to some maximum position or does it mean something else entirely?
Dear Elite, Well I agree with you of course ,the trading arena is full of muddled less than honest thoughts , which is why I wrote about people muddling up different things into a sort of hotchpotch, your point about sellers of systems ,books etc doesn't helping another .I've written in another post about a book I bought early in my career written by Toby Crabel which he pulled , the truth is it's extremely unlikely that someone who's making millions from his method is going to sell them in a book , and if one did it would be close to impossible for the novice trader to know which( amongst all those snake oil sellers). In my opinion your on your own , get on with it!!
Do most traders have an edge? Hmm. I think that many traders are edgy and that some live on the edge. Aside from that, I think most traders end up with wedgies* rather than edges. * Stay tuned for the new reality TV series about traders entitled Talcum in the Middle.
It can be either, as long as it's consistent. If you choose to scale in/out, it must be mechanical so you don't outwit yourself with too much thinking.
Exactly Henry, It is logical to deduce that those who know, will not easily share their knowledge with those that dont know, after all, why should they ? However, there are many succesful traders, that we all know, as to the extent of their success, well, I would imagine that only those whom are very close will know that. It is all relevant. Look at the ridicilious amounts of money that analyists are paid, some of them earn several million $ per year ! Ask one of them to show you how to scalp the open, and I bet you they would be running for the exit, pronto. I do know of one very successful trader that has sold his own private method to about 500 > 600 traders over a few years. But, I also know that out of that 500 to 600 traders, there are only 3 that it has clicked with, and out of that 3, there is only one who has mastered it and made it his own. He is even now better than the person who taught him, in relation to the methods taught, but he still, and will probabaly never, make as much money as the person who taught him, for many reasons, and most of those reasons are to do with the title of this forum ! Being on your own is not the answer, believe me, I have being do this for many years. Us plebs, and a pleb in relation to trading, is someone who is not working in one of the big dealing houses like G Sachs, etc, are really being dealt the short hand, all of the time, and in order to change that, one must be prepared to accept that there are those out there that are just plain darn better than we will ever be at this game, and if you should stumble across such a trader, then it will be very obvious, believe me. It is never easy to deal with such people, as they are very set in their ways, but one thing that always shines true, is persistance and the ability to show that one is not afraid of hard work. Trading for real profits, then, just becomes a matter of time !
Dear Elite , My thoughts that someone is essentially on their own when trading aren't a spontaneous idea so we'll have to agree to disagree , of course no trader is an island but with any system /idea it's usually from an idea that someone has , not a committee, maybe there's something to be said for bouncing ideas of each other but i believe most breakthroughs are individual brilliance , and by their very nature mkts tend to punish the many and reward the few, the big winners are individuals trading large sums against the many trading with far less ( not everytime , but mostly).