lol. I agree.What does any of this have to do with trading? You watch the market until you get in synch, then you trade.
I'm a mechanical trader, I dont even hang around while the markets are open so quantifying is everything. What I'm trying to quantify most is whether there's an opportunity for profit in the market using one or two models (of non-randomness). In other words my program is 'watching the market until it gets in synch, then it trades'. So as you can see it's not about why folk cant make money at all. You may be thinking of 'random walk' theory which sudgests that markets are entirely random in the long term and cant be traded. But this has been rightly discarded by quant analists. Just the same we need some test for non-randomness becausae non-random behaviour is our trading opportunity. Your test is to watch and get in sync, cool.
Many equate efficient with PERFECT. No market can be perfect, thus, there is always SOME inefficiency. The size and frequency of the inefficiency, as well as your ABILITY to identify it, determines your profit. What's so hard about that?
I always thought an efficient market is one that correctly prices stuff at all times to balance future supply/demand. Based on that, my feeling is that you make money if you contribute to the efficiency of the market, your lose money otherwise. So in a perfectly efficient market, you could still make money if you're the last cog required to keep it perfectly efficient
One thing to bear in mind is that if the historical data you use presents the market as perfectly efficient (no opportunities for you) you still have the possibility that you may get better fills than the next guy, but that will require another level of efficiency in your setup.
some technical purists consider all factors to be wrapped up in price hence all the inefficiencies (namely overbought or over valued or discounted vs. fair value, etc.) are either a function of new events not factored into current price or representing undue influence not factored into price or volume, such as pairs traders using the underlying to counter balance another position. Generally the latter offers no indication in price or technical patterns that one could anticipate the underlying being used as a hedge to another position, thus creating its own inefficiency. net, net, net (as we say in Wall Street) you will almost always have market inefficiencies, which create opportunities to profit from... some also say that efficient markets are generally in balance or equilibrium and hence offer fewer if no opportunities to take advantage of.
Your genius is almost unbearable. Tell that to a horseplayer, as in 'only bet the winning horse, that way you eliminate the losers'.