You are quite right of course. Those who have analytical and trading experience tend to be able to quote their own research, their own views and are able to back it up with their own trading results. Those who do not tend to use hearsay and fluff - they will always be quoting what others in the industry have said. They will not be able to produce any original arguments or research of their own. And of course they will also use insult and ridicule against anybody who dares to question their spurious authority.
It's a matter of strategy diversification. There have been some excellent comments to this effect from good people on other, more quantitatively oriented fora, such as Nuclear Phynance.
This would explain why the Turtle Rules do not work any more?.. The underlying fundamental principle works (ie trend following) but the actual execution for catching trends does not work as market dynamics have moved and strategies needs to be adjusted? Disclaimer: I have not tested the Turle trading rules myself...
That would certainly seem to be the case. It would be interesting to ask the view of those still marketing these outdated rules. Perhaps they have not backtested them either. Certainly one must assume they have not traded them. There are good systems salesmen out there who have good ideas and from whom I have learnt a lot. These type of vendors tend to be traders and good analysts. And then there are the rest - god knows where they get their "systems" from. But it is usually clear from their posts and their comments that their knowledge of trading is molecule thick.
Just by way of example, Dean Hoffman is someone that I find interesting. He has always made useful and intelligent contributions to the trading forums I follow (mostly Trading Blox these days) and has started his own trading forum. He even gives away free demonstration trading systems and results on his forum. I have no idea what the systems he sells are like (they are, or used to be black box and so are of no interest to me). However his comments on trading have been such as to make it obvious that he does not belong in the "fluff" and "hot air" category. He understands trend following, he has a publically available track record, he manages money. He does not answer a question by referring you to what Bill Dunn said or JH Henry or any of the rest of the crew. Nor does he refer you to a book he has written. He answers questions using his own knowledge of research and trading. Compare his approach to a few other vendors!
I have. Who told? they are still working. Portfolio 4x futures Nikkey225,Soybean,EUR,CL. 1 contract, no reinvest, 50k. Here the result.
What Druid describes is not the Turtle System. Turtles did re-invest. Turtles scaled in. Turtles traded a different portfolio of over 20 futures. Search the web for "The Original Turtle Trading Rules" written by ex-Turtle Curtis Faith. The programming of those rules into Trading Blox was done by Curtis Faith - and testing those rules using Trading Blox and the same portfolio that the Turtles used shows very clearly that System 1 (as described by Curtis Faith) has been flat as a pancake since the early 1990s. Testing those same rules using a portfolio of over 100 futures shows the same collapse in performance.
Thanks for posting this. Is this something you are trading though or just a back-test? Can I ask why you chose these markets though? Would the other ones display worse performance?
Don't get caught up on single contract testing. That is not the way the Turtles traded. It is not the way to compound your capital either (if you trade a decent system, that is). You need to own software that is capable of testing a portfolio of futures and dynamically sizing postions on a fixed fractional basis in line with equity increases and decreases. Also don't make the mistake of cherry picking a portfolio - a system must work on a wide range of different portfolios of differing sizes to make sense and to give comfort that no curve fitting is taking place. Scaling in (adding to positions, pyramidding at 1/2 ATR intervals) adds misery to an already outdated mode of trading in the case of the Original Turtle Trading Rules. Or rather in the case of an outdated and perhaps overly complex set of parameters of an otherwise perfectly acceptable method of trading - channel breakouts. You may be interested in taking a look at Curtis Faith's new website where he makes similar comments. Search for it with Google. Whatever criticisms have been levelled at Curtis Faith he is a superb software programmer and if anyone is capable of backtesting the Turtle Rules it is certainly him. He also has the advantage of having actually traded them!