They have the money to hire the top maths/science graduates. PHDs from top Unis, so they are off to a flying start. Then you never hear how they have done. Is that young guy flipping Big Macs on the corner a burnt out PHD from a big institution ? Noone knows or cares, I suppose. The markets can take the best and brightest apart. The one thing that is easy to find out is the dividend paid - usually on the small side like 6%. Either the big boys are paying out peanuts and pocketing the rest or they are earning peanuts too. The new Marxist leader of The Opposition in the UK is talking about taxing all financial deals and probably closing down the trading industry. Oooooooh Nooooooooooo !!
Ibanks, hedge funds, private equity, or asset managers never take clients for a ride? No deception? No misleading ever?Goodness, I am out of here... this is getting hysterical. You are totally green behind your ears. But good luck with your trading...you seem to really have to depend on luck it seems...
If there is predictive power anywhere, it would be in the time series itself. But even there, I just do not believe in "predictability" where the markets are concerned. I do recognize "probability," which is not the same as "probable" or "probably" as those words are commonly used in common discourse. I also could characterize my trading as "anticipatory," but again, that is not at all to say "predictatory" (the irony of butchering a word to make my meaning more clear). Happy NFP day to all.
I can honestly say that when I put on a trade, I have no expectations whatsoever other than that my account equity will have changed by at least the amount I pay in commissions and fees by the time I close the position. "Luck," whatever that is, does not factor into the framework of my understanding, unless by "luck" one means to refer to the independent and random nature of outcomes. But if that is what is meant, then one should have no "expectation" as to the result of any particular trade.
Don't worry, the FTT will never happen. There is too much solid, unrefutable evidence that it adversely affects market quality. peace, surf
Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and formerly Chief Economist at the IMF, argues that "Higher transactions taxes increase the cost of capital, ultimately lowering investment. With a lower capital stock, output would trend downward, reducing government revenues and substantially offsetting the direct gain from the tax. In the long run, wages would fall, and ordinary workers would end up bearing a significant share of the cost. More broadly, FTTs violate the general public-finance principle that it is inefficient to tax intermediate factors of production, particularly ones that are highly mobile and fluid in their response. http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2011/10/03/the-wrong-tax-for-europe/ One thing we can all agree on, right?
View attachment 157575 [/QUOTE] Bouncing of a *weighted* reaction low zone. The main reason it works a lot of the time is because other entities trade countertrend off those levels as potential reward substantially outweighs risk. Money management takes care of the rest and of course time invested in studying price action behavior.
You clearly haven't been paying attention to news. Also, insider information isn't black and white legally speaking, banks operate mostly in the gray area on information not easily available.
If you don't believe that an individual using TA has predictive ability, you may want to review this posting from 2007. Banks and big players are all about using TA specifically the Bollinger Bands are their number one tool. TA is useless however without the real edge which is prudent money/risk management. http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/eclectic.98420/page-13#post-1662383