Its all relative. The one minute chart is noise to the one hour chart. The one hour char is noise to the one year chart. Our day to day lives is noise in geological time, yet there are clear trends and patterns in our day to day lives.
if you are looking for a sure thing, it is almost universally agreed that some day the sun will burn out, so that is a good bet as a straight wager. Where most get screwed up is in small time prop bets, like, "But before the sun burns out and all life on earth will be destroyed, we will be hit by an asteroid." so, the smaller the time frame, the smaller the payout, but the smaller the risk so yes, you are correct, it is all relative, and that is where cost analysis comes into the game the smaller the time frame the more frequent the bet, and the higher the monthly cost that is why I like betting on the sun, because you only pay the vig one time but in an efficient market, it should all be equal, you really need to get the calculator out and see just how efficient the market is
Cornix, You first struck me as a legit trader, now I'm not so sure. First you caught the mini crash in another thread and your trading buddies must be the best on earth. They never lose, just see above. It's really starting to sound ridiculous. surf
Very true Oldtime. Cost is a very significant issue in any account, but it somehow seems more noticeable in a small account. Just holding one mini lot is costing $0.9/day (Roll), and about $2.4 every time I trade it. Still I'd rather hold than spend, $2.4 X 2 per round trade, 50 times a day. I mean think about that. Scalp one mini lot 50 times and lose $240/day. That's $60,000/yr - a full salary for a family. That's what many of us are handing the broker so that 95% of the time we can lose all of our money. Even if I only did 10 trades a day, that's still $12,000/yr - 12 times the mini account I am trading.
it's not quite that simple, cost has to be compared to what everybody else is paying that is why I don't go up against HFT (not that I could even if I tried) it kind of comes down to how good you have to be to overcome the cost and if your cost is too much more than what the big boys are paying, then you can no longer compete it's like the local hardware store against walmart, yet some of them survive, because they are just that good
You strike me as a loser who never got it so everyone else deserves the same fate to prevent your fragile ego from breaking.
Yes, oldtime, that is partly my point. I don't see the value in scalping - atleast not with the resources I currently have. The cost is simply too great. I can't compete with the big boys. A swing trade approach, as you have discovered, seems to work much better for me. Given the nature of large pairs like EUR/USD this is also a less risky approach in my humble opinion.
No, I get it and have made a killing in the markets over the years. In fact, some of it was documented here since 2002. I am far from a fragile ego and likely have more experience and success than you. Remember the markets are full of deception and those who have been deceived are easy to spot and don't even realize it. One of the PA TA gurus has already been banned for not being fully legit. Who do you think will be next?
Marketsurfer, with all due respect, I really question people who use expressions like: "made a killing." 95% of the time, this is a massive exaggeration.
yes, I agree, same with me, there is a middle point after a while where things even out but still, cost is only a consideration after you have done the math. Just because it is a lot of money doesn't mean the whole deal can't be profitable. I can't believe what I paid in carry some months, I would have been happy just to make that much, but then again, some months I did and much more the same myth has been sold, usually about every four years in the new crop of trading books, and now internet sites, that somehow a bracket trader can overcome the cost. And usually, when you are in a drawdown and look back, you see, if you had just bracket traded you would at least be even, if not profitable. wouldn't it be nice if it was all that simple? just put it on with a stop and a target somehow you will overcome the spread and the commish (and sleep well at night to boot!)