Correct and as you saw I chewed his balls off for that risk. But it was more than just holding overnight, it was incorrect position sizing in that statement too. No it wasn't an emotional gamble because the method requires mapping out the future moves and when you are in a position and it is going in the right direction then you can monitor that movement using bigger time frames. His larger time frames were all spot on. Regardless, I don't hold overnight and that's my style and not an absolute for others. I have a friend who is a great trader and most of his trading is overnight holds. When an account has reached the level to conservatively fund your maximum position size and you have built up a reserve I don't see any problem with over night holding but, when you are growing the account it may not be a good idea unless that is your strategy. I just find at the end of a trading day I want to close out and put my focus elsewhere for a recharge rather than think about holding. Yes the framework is very strict with small stops and strong set ups and his next trading day was 140 pips $120/pip. This is all day trading usually off the 1 min chart but looking to roll that into a bigger time frame swing which at times will roll on into the 4 hour time frame. He's been trading every day till now from the dates shown apart from 3 days sick and the holidays. He has not had a losing day but he does make mistakes and had to recover from a -30 and -40 on two or three occasions to get into positive territory. The lowest score was 11 pips and I think I am correct that every other day has been over 20 pips. Several days have been over 100 with the 140 being tops so far but his skill is improving. Next month he will be on $200+/pip and he's averaging around 40 pips a day at the moment disregarding the spikes like 140 pips in that average. Averaging 40 pips a day is not groundbreaking and it beats me why turning $10K into $1,000,000 is so unbelievable to guys that think they are ET hotshots. The method is one I developed over almost 30 yrs and is a multiple time frame based predictive model where the day is mapped out in advance then then inside that I work on a 60m GamePlan inside the daily MAP. Finally we take that context into the 1 min time frame zone but not limited to time based charts so we can go below the 1 min. This allows stops of around 5 pips and a very high hit rate. The rookie has a lot of growing yet to do because every day he misses some great set ups but I factored that into the challenge and without any improvement he has the $1,000,000 goal in the bag. I'd be disappointed if he doesn't hit $1,500,000 which on a percentage basis is 15,000% but that growth curve will have leveled out by month 6 when liquidity becomes more of an issue. So next year he will make more $'s but on a greatly reduced % growth. That's why I'm not looking for investors or selling books or whatever else and need to go into ATS to expand horizontally rather than vertically. As an aside, I guy I know is one of the biggest ES traders in the world and at times he hits 20,000 contracts in a single trade which is the exchange limit. He trades from home and 6 yrs back had a small account. He uses TA and if you ask him for a statement to prove it he'll tell you where to take your statement. Cornix, CVD and I trade with a senior ex HF manager who just trades his own account and he only uses TA. I'd rate him as one of the best traders there is and it is such a simple method to look at. Mine is a very complex method by comparison but that just how it worked out.
"Next month he will be on $200+/pip and he's averaging around 40 pips a day at the moment disregarding the spikes like 140 pips in that average. Averaging 40 pips a day is not groundbreaking and it beats me why turning $10K into $1,000,000 is so unbelievable to guys that think they are ET hotshots." Here's why it is questionable. In Canada and the USA we're limited to 50 to 1 leverage. Actually at Questrade, I am limited 33 to 1. Currently the maintenance margin required for one mini lot ($1/pip) is about $390. So, starting with $10,000, that allows for 25 mini lots if I am all in, or $25 per pip. 40 pips in a day is only $1000. It is going to take a long time to grow that to $1,000,000 even with a perfect daily record. ... but maybe you're right.
Exactly. Its needed. The converse to that is something like ~120 billion changes hands daily for legit international trade and capital flows. The rest (3.4 trillion or whatever) is speculation. Same for most other markets (crude, wheat, copper etc). Cme talks all day about risk transfer, but actual partipation in futs is overwhelmingly dominated by specs, not comms and hedgers. That gives the market its repetitive (and predictable) nature. Traders get caught on the wrong side, at the same spots etc. For "fun", look up the total notional underlying volume traded everyday in cl, compared to global daily crude consumption. Then consider cl is just *one* major globally traded oil contract of *many*...
In reference to "Xspurt" The Vendor's rookie. The bad day probably a product of irresponsible trading that went wrong. The good day, could had been a product of irresponsible trading that went right and he is using the scenario to pump his business. I see no evidence of consistency in these two statements. Perhaps something with continuity could be posted to shut the doubters like myself, in the meantime, the evidence presented looks selective and incomplete; very reminiscence of ET.
I've never traded a lot in my life. Go to IB's website and check out position sizing. At the moment he is closing in on the $200K in his account and trading $200/ pip on that is conservative. He's on $140/pip now but that goes up this week. Also your growth projection is way out. Sit down with a calculator and work it out.
Several people, including some ET members have more than just viewing statements, they have my trades executed in THEIR accounts. If I ever lie about my results I openly asked them in our chat to expose my BS publicly. If you really want, I could even trade your money so you see all yourself, no wuss no fuss. Seriously. I have neve claimed to be a brilliant trader. Not at all. Way inferior to the results Xspurt shows. But I do consistently and profitably trade. Did it with Euro, now doing with NQ.
I've worked it out. I'm well aware how rapidly 40 pips/day compounds if you have a perfect record. Unfortunately, none of us have a perfect record over an extended period of time. You've never traded a lot? You mean you trade with a lot more money. Fair enough. I don't have that luxury at the moment.
Simpletrades: $1200? I won't knock it because you could have started with $10 for all I know. You're are exactly the kind of person I'd like to compete with. You show some steady results. Just transfer your accounts to MB or Oanda. We get some more people and we'll have a good contest. For me, the contest could be micros, minis, or full lots. It's all the same to me. The point is to show the loser trolls that consistent returns are not THAT difficult to make. @Achilles, it's OK. Unfortunately I live about 3 hours from he beach. It's about like living anywhere else. Regarding the rookie, FOREX lots are not futures. Sometimes I go multiple days in a trade. Forex can either charge you or pay you the SWAP interest which can be a plus or a minus depending on your trade. Some people arb the pairs. IMO, if he's not leaving some wiggle room for DD, he's risking a lot. I wouldn't do it, but he's not trading my account either. Average DD with pro's I've seen is around 20%. Mine is at 9,99% and +6% in the other. It could happen to me too at any time. @cornix, you could have an Ivy-League attorney sign off on your results and they would still say that they are fake. I'm not going to pay them any mind going forward. The only way I'll even participate here is if some people want a friendly trade-off contest, which I really hope gets off the ground.
Xspurt as a handle was partly tongue in cheek and partly just trying to get a name that was available after about 10 failed attempts. I have tunnel vision for my method and after that a pretty good all round TA knowledge, but if I'm an expert on anything it is what goes on in my small world and that's absolutely it. I don't think there such a thing as a general expert in TA. I don't think I have reached my limits yet and seek to improve every day and I'm glad to have made some long term trading buddies in ET. Cornix has a great style and gives away loads of techniques for free on his website so you get to prove the set ups for yourself. It's nuts to think he's lying. CVD is one of the sharpest trading minds I have ever had the privileged of knowing and remember him kicking 300+ pip days. The only reason he is not full time day trading is related to health and it's an extremely difficult challenge to deal with that he faces up to in a remarkable way. Hat's off to you CVD. I've given loads of stuff away on ET over the years and must have made over 100 calls in advance so between Cornix and myself there's tons of information and exact set ups with big pictures if reading is not your thing. These signals repeat over and over in every market condition. It's nuts to think Cornix is lying and if you think I'm a fraud then you have loads of examples you can call on to say, Hey you showed this but it doesn't work.