Do Earnings even matter to the market?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by bonds, Oct 19, 2012.

  1. bonds


    We were just up almost 300 pts in 3 days on a not so surprising good housing # and a nice earnings report from Citi.

    Yesterday we had GOOG with a huge surprise miss on top of a surprise horrible jobless claims. And the market is down a measly 8 pts.

    After hours misses by MSFT, AMD, MRVL, CMG...

    This morning we have misses by GE, MCD, BHI, FDMI, FNFG miss on revenue and guide lower HON, SLB ...

    And futures are pretty much flat.

    I would think that earnings season has been horrible so far but market is up with no signs of a meaningful pullback. But I have a feeling if Spain get a bailout this weekend we will gap up a couple of hundred points.

    Is this market a total joke or is it just me?
  2. Tsing Tao

    Tsing Tao

    Dude, where have you been? The only thing that matters is Central Bank printing.
  3. bonds


    LOL sorry i had a brain cramp i keep getting the stock market and the economy confused!
  4. it matters for CMG lol
  5. You are saying that the market should interpret all the news as it comes instead of trying to forecast ahead. Who are you to say that 1450 in the market is not factoring the slowdowns in some of these companies?
  6. Both of you probably have a few things all mixed up.

    This Depression started in JUN/JUL 2006.
  7. Thanks Captain Hindsight!
  8. jsp326


    He's been too busy making 3X the ATR of the S&P every day to post this. But he knew it back in the summer of 2006, just like he knew the ultimate blow-off top was in October '07. Freakin' genius, that Jack.

    As for the original question, yes earnings do matter...but with perpetual QE, it's anyone's guess when the chickens will finally come home to roost. The more intervention, the longer things can stay irrational.
  9. watch the videos I made during those months.

    did you miss the announcements?
  10. Yes it is true that many of us called the period a "climax run". We also recorded the presentations on video.

    for trading to make money, the sort of your Universe is very important. To do that Earnings are divided into percentiles.

    The symbol EPS is used to represent the sorting tool. It was invented by william J. O'Neill (See his works and IBD).

    Equally important in forming the multi-lagged stool is a percentile sort called RS.

    the third leg for traders is the criteria of the sorted high beta stocks.. they are as follows:

    Price range 10 to 50. float between 5 and 60 million Minimum liquidity of 200,000 shares trades daily.

    the last leg for making money is the repeatabiliy of a stock . A data sheet mentioned elsewhere is used to average the last five cycles within a 6 month span. A rank and timing is determined and made part of the Universe data.

    Here are two views of a stock I was asked to analyze. The before and after pics show how the opposite of the "hindsight" mistakenly stated here works.

    and after:

    The OP was requesting information on earnings (dividends).

    my comments are substantive and not off the wall. they come from timely kept records available to the public from the time they are made.

    Making money has a "How" associated with it. Anyone can learn how by doing the work and doing it in the ways I recommend.

    If you are a losing trader who can't cut it, look at the volume on the second chart and see if you would have been stopped out at that high volume moment. the majority lose and there on that chart you can see why.
    #10     Oct 19, 2012