Discussion in 'Trading' started by Steven W, Mar 6, 2018.
It really depends on trade frequency. The higher the frequency, the fewer losing days.
The lower the win rate the longer the losing streaks.
A long term win rate below 33% is not recommended. Psychologically very hard to trade with a very low win rate like 20 or 25% as the losing streaks will be very long.
I am a systems trader and my win rate is 40% but i can still get a 25 trade sample with only 5 winners in it, in other words the short term win rate can drop to 20%. Then i might get 5 or more winners in a row and so the win rate is back towards 40%.
I have done lots of back testing which helps get through those periods.
Without this extensive backtesting i don't think i could trade a low win rate method over the long run.
Personally I don't even make money ever quarter, let alone every month or week or day. I have something like 80% profitable quarters. Which means i could even have a losing year as with 80% you can still get 3 or 4 losers in row.
You have to kind of just look at the average...over the course of a week/month/year, -- the big, Collective picture.
Instead of being obsessed with having a positive return everyday, Because that's all that matters...your average return everyday,
No one profits Everyday, to profit every day...is to imply you have 100% sure-fire prediction/trading/management skills. Which is, of course, ridiculous and fictional.
Showing a profit everyday, is not that difficult or impossible, however. -- If you are open-minded enough to realize a turn or reversal and ride that big wave, Boom...your relatively tiny loss has disappeared,
You can accomplish great things with trading, if you escape the matrix that has kept your mind and knowledge and goals and past experiences confined. -- This much I can tell you.
It's like a Rolex Platinum watch that retails for $50K...to you, and alot of other people,...you may think that's the Most expensive, luxurious, awesomest watch. ...Until, you see a Patek Philippe Tourbillon minute repeater watch that costs $500,000.
Boom....your mind and horizons...has just greatly been Expanded,
It's like an early Space scientist realizing our Milky Way galaxy/neighborhood is the complete Space.....Which, in fact, is only a micro Grain of Sand...within the ever-expanding Universe,
It's like a newbie trader seeing another more experienced trader...make $5,000 in a day. To him, that's like Winning the f'n Lottery!
Until he see's another, different, trader make $30,000 in a day.
His relatively small mind and narrow horizons...has just Greatly been Expanded,
2018 ET, extraterrestrial traders -- all the best,
Man daytrading as a career can suck then since there's no predictability...
Would you daytrade in USA? Capital gains tax is a lot. I'm super stressed out daily but have been profitable
Trading is a grind most of time, punctuated with shorter periods of high profitability.
It is important to pick the best trades so as to prevent wearing yourself out during the grinding periods. Try and avoid suboptimal trades without missing out on too many big winners.
Daytrading means short-term trading with positions that get opened and closed within a day or a few days. Regards to profitability, it depends on variety of factors including but not limited to your skill, talent, mental strength, and luck. There is no set pattern of profitability of daytrading and the income is NEVER guaranteed. Income is NEVER guaranteed in any form of trading. Even big brokerage firms like Goldman Sachs lose BILLIONS of dollars in a year. Some like Lehman Brothers even went bankrupt after existing for a hundred years.
That's what trading is. You are living on the edge, walking on a wire everyday. If you don't like the unpredictability of income, there is always regular day jobs where your income is guaranteed as long as you show up at work everyday on time and not make too big of mistakes and kiss up to the boss AND his bitch secretary.
Just trade on Fridays then.Fridays statistically is like one way ticket.
That one win needs to be very huge if you're going to do more than breakeven after 10 small losses.
Trading, whether it's daytrading or even larger timeframes is only a grind if you don't know what you're doing. IMO.
If your results are not currently good and you feel trading is difficult, consider that perhaps you haven't learned enough, yet (or ever).
I don't know what you're doing but to have a chance in the scalping business of trading...
You need to be automated, special commission rates, using a broker/platform suitable for scalping, high win:rate, understand the statistical analysis of your backtesting & trade results and not super stressed (trader psychology).
If you're lacking in any of those areas, you're at a huge disadvantage.
Did that one big winning day occurred within the first week of February ?
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