Impossible for FDA to reject, worst outcome this time is delay like AMLN, means DNDN will stay at least around 30, short Jan puts to earn free money! 10-20 Jan puts premiums are too high, kill these pigs
I had stock and options in this company back in 2007 and after the FDA Advisory committee gave it's thumbs up the same euphoric percentages was being said by stock holders. No way it can't pass if their own advisory committee gave it a go. Well it didn't pass. I took a big loss. I am in it again with options and stock. This time I have puts to protect my stock and will take my chances with the options. My guess is, there is a 80% to 90% chance it will get approved. Still pretty high and a good bet but I wouldn't put my life savings in it like so many did back in 2007. I will say if anyone here hasn't look at this stock they should. Even if they wait till after FDA approval I don't think you can miss on this one. It really is a block buster of a drug with nothing else in the market like it.
FDA anouncement is May first but could come sooner. Debate is how much of the news is already built into the price. It is near $40 and was under 4.00 last year. Since it didn't pass last time I think there is enough doubt that there is room for it to go up. Market cap is already over 5 billion on a company that doesn't even have one drug it can sell but come May first or sooner it will truly have a block buster of a drug. Sales first full year is estimated at one billion and that could be conservative. Over 60% of stock is held by institutions who usually don't take risks. Major concern would be a delay by FDA over Manufacturing.
The chances of it not passing is pretty slim. It would be a high risk trade. But with high risk comes high rewards. If it doesn't pass this stock will crash, may be to $5. A greater likely hood is a delay due to manufacturing verifications. In that case the stock is not going to drop to 25. You need to do some research on this one to see if your willing to take that risk.
how much short term upside do you guys really think is left, lets say fda approves it as expected. forget the initial pop from <$5 to $20. It has now doubled again close to $40 on pure speculation the fda will approve it.