Dividend strat

Discussion in 'Trading' started by misterkel, Oct 20, 2018.

  1. sle

    sle

    I think that's the whole point of the example, since he says "I am saying to the OP is that, this will not happen in real life".
     
    #11     Oct 21, 2018
  2. Such a stupid guy
     
    #12     Oct 21, 2018
  3. okay - here's a real world case -

    Screen Shot 2018-10-23 at 4.31.08 PM.png

    probably not getting it since I'm 'such a stupid guy,' but - buy the underlying at $16.01, buy the put for 0.71 (at the ask - of course, try for less).
    Collect dividend of $0.87 for a risk-free profit of 0.15 before fees.

    What am I missing?
     
    #13     Oct 23, 2018
  4. EvanDM

    EvanDM

    Where did you see a dividend of $0.87 at?
     
    #14     Oct 23, 2018
  5. Top line - 'DIVamt' - 0.87.
    It's definitely there.
     
    #15     Oct 23, 2018
  6. samuel11

    samuel11

    Per year? Your options are for November, which is less than 1 month
     
    #16     Oct 23, 2018
  7. EvanDM

    EvanDM

    They have paid around .30 for the last 3 years.
     
    #17     Oct 23, 2018
  8. No, the NOV. payout is .87 and the following 3 are the same.

    Div is 21% - which I can't wrap my mind around. It's a pretty big fund, so it's stable enough. News doesn't show any major negatives.

    Anyway - is this a risk-free profit? I think so, but may be missing something.
     
    #18     Oct 23, 2018
  9. Sig

    Sig

    ET is the result of the merger 4 days ago of ETE and ETP so I'm guessing that payout is a spurious number generated by IB as a result of a screw up with "The Algorithm's" automated pull of the data post merger. There is no dividend announcement from them for that amount (or for the next 4 dividend payments, which would be crazy for an LP like ET) and it doesn't comport with past dividend payments of the previous LPs. There are also some B and C class shares that IB might be mistakenly getting info from, although even their dividends aren't at that level (Maybe added together?).
     
    #19     Oct 23, 2018
  10. @Sig - good reply - thanks. Div will be .305, found by emailing ET's investor services.

    Meantime - check this play out.
    Screen Shot 2018-10-26 at 2.14.42 PM.png

    Screen capture was a bit late, but IBM was at 125.00. Short synthetic ATM 125 was 1.18 ask (probably obtainable for less - IBM near term ATM options should be pretty liquid).
    The dividend pays 1.57.
    1.57-1.18 = 0.39
    .39/125=0.00312
    .00312*26 periods (it's 2 weeks out, so this annualizes it) = .08112 = 8% annualized return

    This looks risk-free to me. It's also a worst-case, given the conditions - could be improved by getting in at 1.05 on the short side.
    Now 8% is not awesome, but for risk-free return, it seems decent. If margined to 3 times, it would return 24% - 5% (borrow rate of 2.5%*2) = 19%.

    19% risk-free would be salivary.


    I don't like pissing matches - and I'm happy to be wrong. I just want to learn. Can somebody show me my mistakes - or confirm if the logic seems solid?
     
    #20     Oct 26, 2018