New high water mark achieved! Live personal account exposure. Black 'A' in top left corner denotes live account. Demo account used to track trading. White 'A' in top left denotes demo account. Taken from news feed. Dollar Gains Against Emerging-Market Currencies -- Update Thu Mar 14 17:08:00 2019 By Ira Iosebashvili The dollar rose against emerging-market currencies Thursday, as investors reacted to weaker-than-expected Chinese data. The U.S. currency was recently up 0.8% against the Brazilian real and gained 0.5% versus the South Korean won, while strengthening against a range of other emerging-markets currencies. Indicators released by China's government on Thursday showed a steepening of the downturn that began last year in the world's second-largest economy, despite a rebound in investment driven by Beijing to shore up growth. Signs of a slowing Chinese economy are worrying for developing countries that depend on Chinese demand to soak up their exports of commodities and other goods. Last year, the Chinese economy grew at its slowest rate in nearly three decades. The British pound was down 0.7% against the dollar, after lawmakers on Thursday voted to delay the U.K.'s departure from the European Union, scheduled for March 29. The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the U.S. currency against a basket of 16 others, was up 0.3% to 89.90. Write to Ira Iosebashvili at ira.iosebashvili@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 14, 2019 17:08 ET (21:08 GMT) Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Good morning everybody, ah what a beautiful day. It's amazing how a little money can make everything so much nicer. Looking out my bay window across the yard, sun is about to break over the horizon, birds are out chirping. Up another +0.16% Taken from my news feed. US, China on Course to Reach Trade Deal: MUFG -- Market Talk Fri Mar 15 10:07:00 2019 1407 GMT - The U.S. and China will likely eventually reach a trade deal, even though "it may take a little longer than initially expected," says MUFG. "Financial markets have already adjusted to price in a more favorable outcome from U.S.-China trade talks at the start of this year, which has encouraged the Chinese remnibi and emerging market currencies to rebound," the bank says. However, the remnibi has fallen recently following reports of a delay in U.S.-China trade talks, although the negative fallout has remained "relatively limited." USD/CNY rose to a four-week high of 6.7296 as the yuan fell, but it is last down 0.1% at 6.7135. (olga.cotaga@wsj.com) (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 15, 2019 10:07 ET (14:07 GMT) Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Another high water mark, keep it coming, let's keep stacking those pips !! Live personal account exposure. Black 'A' in top left corner denotes live account. Demo account used to track trading. White 'A' in top left denotes demo account. Taken from my news feed. Weak Economic Data Spurs U.S. Government Bond Rally Fri Mar 15 16:01:00 2019 By Daniel Kruger and Sam Goldfarb A key U.S. government bond yield fell near its lowest levels of the year Friday after a series of reports showed signs of weakness throughout the manufacturing sector, adding to concerns about the U.S. economy. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which helps set borrowing costs for consumers, businesses and state and local governments, broke through the bottom of its recent trading range. It settled at 2.594%, the lowest close since Jan. 3. The yield had been at 2.628% Thursday. Yields fall as bond prices rise. The 10-year yield began declining at the start of U.S. trading, a fall that accelerated after reports showing manufacturing output, factory orders and other measures of production were weaker than economists had forecast. The data boosted traders' expectations that weaker growth and muted inflation will keep the Federal Reserve from further interest-rate increases this year. Bond yields have retreated from multiyear highs near 3.25% reached in November as investors have become increasingly concerned that global growth is slowing. Inflation and interest-rate increases by the Fed are two of the biggest threats to Treasurys. Inflation erodes the purchasing power of bonds' fixed payments, while rising short-term interest rates typically have a knock on effect on Treasury yields, pushing prices lower. Investors will get a fresh look at the Fed's outlook for the economy next week at the central bank's regularly scheduled meeting at which it is expected to hold interest rates steady for a second consecutive meeting. JPMorgan economists Thursday said they no longer expect policy makers to raise interest rates this year. "The Fed is data dependent, and the data is weakening," said Thomas di Galoma, head of Treasury trading and a managing director at Seaport Global Holdings. Investors Friday increased their wagers that the Fed will lower interest rates this year. Fed-funds futures, which investors use to bet on central bank policy, showed the probability of a rate cut by year end had climbed to 26% from 17% a week ago. Odds currently show no chance of a rate increase. Demand for U.S. government debt picked up after the 10-year yield fell below 2.6%, which had been a closely watched level among investors, said Larry Milstein, head of U.S. Treasury and agency trading at R.W. Pressprich & Co. Investors had been testing that barrier for a few trading sessions, starting with the release of weaker-than-expected inflation data on Tuesday. "It's almost a snowball effect," Mr. Pressprich said. "These things take on a life of their own as more people pay attention to them." The persistence of muted inflation, together with a relatively clear message from Fed officials that they won't raise rates in the absence of strong inflation, has given investors confidence to buy Treasurys despite yields remaining near the bottom of their recent trading range, analysts said. "Even though we are getting reasonable growth, there's just no inflation pressure on the economy," said Zhiwei Ren, portfolio manager at Penn Mutual Asset Management, who has recently been buying five-year Treasurys on the belief that the Fed will be extremely cautious about raising interest rates. While investors have been concerned about signs the U.S. economy is decelerating, the outlook has been worse elsewhere in the developed world, particularly in the eurozone. The European Central Bank recently slashed its forecast for 2019 growth to 1.1% from 1.7% and signaled that it no longer expects to raise interest rates this year. Responding to the faltering economy, the ECB even announced plans for a fresh batch of cheap long-term loans for banks -- a return to the type of monetary stimulus many investors thought had been left behind last year when developed-market economies appeared to be strengthening together. Write to Daniel Kruger at Daniel.Kruger@wsj.com and Sam Goldfarb at sam.goldfarb@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 15, 2019 16:01 ET (20:01 GMT) Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
My clients and I hit some targets this morning in the Eur/gbp and Gbp/chf. Below is a screen shot of my personal live account, also took these in the demo account to track the balance. Live personal account exposure. Black 'A' in top left corner denotes live account. Live account. Taken from my news feed. Expected Swings in Currencies, Emerging Markets Hit Low -- Market Talk Mon Mar 18 15:21:00 2019 15:21 ET - Expected swings in assets from emerging markets to currencies are falling. A measure of expected swings on currencies is near an all-time low, according to Credit Suisse. A measure of expected swings on an exchange-traded fund tracking emerging markets, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, EEM, is near a one-year low, according to the firm. The falling currency and emerging markets volatility comes as investors have rejiggered their outlooks on Federal Reserve rate hikes. A further decline in cross-asset volatility could spur an advance in EEM, according to Credit Suisse. EEM has rallied about 11.5% this year. (gunjan.banerji@wsj.com; @gunjanjs) (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 18, 2019 15:21 ET (19:21 GMT) Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
New high water mark reached. Sitting at a gain of +17.5% since starting this thread. Live personal account exposure. Black 'A' in top left corner denotes live account. Demo account used to track trading. White 'A' in top left denotes demo account. Taken from my news feed. RBA Liable to Cut Quickly When Jobs Deteriorate -- Market Talk Mon Mar 18 23:02:00 2019 0302 GMT - The minutes from this month's Aussie central bank meeting offer subtle hints the RBA is shifting toward cutting rates and it liable to move fairly quickly when the time comes, says Capital Economics. Today's release contained little new and is actually more out-of-date than usual as the meeting happened before last week's release of 4Q GDP. CapEcon adds while the minutes confirm the RBA's current neutral stance, they also offer clues which acknowledge policymakers are placing a lot of weight on the labor market. The firm believes the RBA is increasingly moving toward cutting and will act if unemployment starts rising. CapEcon sees that rate moving up before long. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart) (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 18, 2019 23:02 ET (03:02 GMT) Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
fgjafspahuenry !!! Live personal account exposure. Black 'A' in top left corner denotes live account. Taken form news feed. U.S. Government Bonds Fall as Fed Meeting Begins Tue Mar 19 16:02:00 2019 By Daniel Kruger U.S. government-bond prices fell Tuesday as investors speculated that the Federal Reserve would continue to emphasize a patient approach to adjusting interest-rate policy as it starts its two-day meeting in Washington. The yield on the benchmark U.S. government 10-year Treasury note rose for a second consecutive session, settled at 2.614% from 2.605% Monday. Yields rise as bond prices fall. Government-bond yields remained within 0.1 percentage point of their lows of the year as investors continued to bet that the Fed's next move is more likely to be a reduction of interest rates than an increase. After a surge in market volatility and concerns that higher interest rates could hasten a recession, Fed officials in January stepped back from their own forecasts at their December meeting that they would raise interest rates two times in 2019 and emphasized that they would be more responsive to economic data, including financial conditions, in setting rates this year. Yields declined from their session highs after the Commerce Department said Tuesday that orders for U.S. manufactured goods rose 0.1% in January. That matched the prediction of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. However, excluding transportation, orders slid 0.2%, the third consecutive monthly decline. Fed officials have indicated that they see little reason to raise interest rates as long as inflation doesn't present a threat to the economy. Inflation is a threat to the value of government bonds because it erodes the future purchasing power of their fixed interest and principal payments. "We think the bond market is sending a pretty accurate signal about expectations for slow inflation and growth," said Bob Browne, chief investment officer for Northern Trust. In setting rates this year, "the Fed needs to think about what the economy will look like in 2020," he said. Fed funds futures, which investors use to speculate on the direction of central-bank policy, showed that investors see a 25% probability that officials will cut interest rates this year, compared with a 75% chance that they stay steady, according to CME Group data. A month ago, the odds of a cut were 8% compared with 2% odds of an increase and 90% chances the Fed would stay on hold. Write to Daniel Kruger at Daniel.Kruger@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 19, 2019 16:02 ET (20:02 GMT) Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Hello all, it has been an extremely volatile 24 hours. I know people have been saying how calm the fx market has been, but I've been seeing the opposite. Had many orders triggered. For targets eur/gbp, nzd/usd and usd/jpy hit. For stops aud/usd, eur/usd, gbp/chf, gbp/jpy, gbp/usd and usd/jpy hit. These were all hit in both my live account and demo. CAGR +85% Demo account used to track trading. White 'A' in top left denotes demo account. Taken from news feed. Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Signals No More Increases Likely This Year--Update Wed Mar 20 19:16:00 2019 By Nick Timiraos WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve officials indicated they are unlikely to raise interest rates this year and may be nearly finished with the series of increases they began more than three years ago now that U.S. economic growth is slowing. The Fed left its policy rate unchanged Wednesday in a range between 2.25% and 2.5%. Chairman Jerome Powell suggested the central bank was likely to leave it there for many months. "It may be some time before the outlook for jobs and inflation calls clearly for a change in [interest rate] policy," Mr. Powell said at a news conference after the central bank's two-day meeting. In response, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.537% from 2.614% Tuesday, ending the session at its lowest level since January 2018. U.S. stocks, which rose immediately after the release of the Fed's policy statement and projections, ended the day lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.5% to 25745.67. The Fed also announced that in May it would slow the pace at which it is shrinking its $4 trillion asset portfolio and end the runoff of its Treasury holdings at the end of September, exactly two years after it began the process. After a period of exceptional market volatility late last year -- brought on by concerns over slowing global growth, trade tensions and the Fed's policy stance -- leaders of the central bank signaled early this year a reversal from their December plans to keep raising rates. Mr. Powell cited mild inflation pressures, a sharp pullback in financial risk-taking and clear threats to U.S. growth in explaining the Fed's new wait-and-see stance after its meeting in late January. Projections released Wednesday underscored the turnabout. They showed 11 of the 17 Fed officials who play a role in interest-rate policy didn't think the bank would need to raise rates at all this year, up from two in December. The remaining six officials projected between one and two increases would be needed in 2019. By contrast, most Fed officials in December had projected between one and three rate rises would be appropriate this year. "They faced this wall of market opposition coming out of the December meeting," said Nathan Sheets, chief economist at PGIM Fixed Income and a former senior Fed economist. "There's enough uncertainty out there that they're not going to fight the markets." The Fed projections suggest more of its officials judge they may have reached the end of their rate-increase cycle. "There are many plausible scenarios where they're done and a smaller number of scenarios where they're not," Mr. Sheets said. He sees the economy eventually strengthening as uncertainty clears, warranting another rate increase. "But the bar for that move is high," Mr. Sheets said. "We can't tell how much the softness reflects some extraordinary global shocks that will abate slowly or a softer underlying engine in the economy." The Fed's shift has came as inflation fell shy of the officials' estimates last year that it would rise above their 2% target. In a particularly revealing admission, Mr. Powell said he was discouraged that inflation hadn't risen in a more sustainable fashion. "I don't feel we have convincingly achieved our 2% mandate in a symmetrical way," he said. "It's one of the major challenges of our time, to have downward pressure on inflation" globally. Mr. Powell also said he wasn't significantly worried that the Fed's policy shift on rates would fuel destabilizing asset bubbles. Fed officials believe 2% inflation is consistent with a healthy economy. They see inflation much lower than that as a sign of weak economic demand. Also, because short-term interest rates haven't returned to higher levels, the Fed has less room to cut rates in a future downturn. Higher inflation can provide a greater cushion to reduce nominal rates in a downturn. Mr. Powell's candor shows "they want to see higher inflation, and they're not convinced they can achieve that," said Michelle Meyer, an economist at Bank of America. Since 2015, the Fed raised rates on the theory that declining unemployment would eventually generate stronger price pressures. This framework dictated that, even with inflation running below the Fed's 2% target, the probability of higher future inflation demanded pre-emptive rate increases. The new projections show the officials continue to revise downward their thinking about the point at which the unemployment rate is consistent with stable prices. The officials' median rate for this metric fell to 4.3% Wednesday -- down from 4.5% a year ago and 4.8% in 2016. This revision suggests the economy can employ more people without risking an acceleration in inflation. Other changes to the forecast show officials no longer believe they will need to raise rates to slow economic growth to a level that will prevent overheating. They revised lower their projection for gross domestic product growth and revised higher their projection for the unemployment rate at year's end. On the asset-portfolio front, the Fed has been shrinking its holdings to $4 trillion from $4.5 trillion when it began the process in October 2017. Announcing the coming end of the runoff marked another significant pivot for Mr. Powell, who in December had said the process was on "autopilot" and running smoothly. Markets reacted poorly to the comment. The Fed currently allows $30 billion in Treasurys and $20 billion in mortgage bonds to mature every month without replacing them; the actual amounts have been slightly lower because the Fed's stock of maturing bonds is smaller in most months. Beginning in May, the Fed will slow to $15 billion the amount of bonds it allows to mature every month, and will stop the runoff of the Treasury holdings in October. The central bank will continue to allow the mortgage holdings to mature, and they will reinvest maturing principal below the $20 billion cap into new Treasury securities. The Fed said Wednesday it hasn't decided when to start increasing the size of the balance sheet. At issue is gauging demand for deposits held by banks at the Fed, known as reserves. Once the Fed stops shrinking the balance sheet, reserves will very slowly decline as other liabilities, namely currency, continue to grow. At some point, reserves could grow scarce enough to raise the rate banks charge in overnight money-market accounts, which would lift the Fed's benchmark rate. Fed officials said Wednesday they will allow the balance sheet to resume growing by purchasing more Treasurys before reserves fall to such a level. Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 20, 2019 19:16 ET (23:16 GMT) Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Again, huge volatility. Taking out multiple Stops and Targets. The following hit there Targets aud/usd, eur/aud, eur/chf, eur/usd and gbp/usd. For Stops, the following hit eur/gbp, eur/jpy, gbp/chf, gbp/jpy, nzd/usd and usd/cad. People saying volatility is low, don't know how to read the market. It's not just pip range that dictates volatility, it's the relations of the pip ranges that matter. We got knocked back a little the last few day. That's how it goes, four steps forwards, two steps back. CAGR +72.9% Live personal account exposure. Black 'A' in top left corner denotes live account. Demo account used to track trading. White 'A' in top left denotes demo account. Taken from news feed. U.S. Government Bonds Reverse Early Rally -- Update Thu Mar 21 16:15:00 2019 By Sam Goldfarb U.S. government bond prices retraced early gains Thursday, keeping yields near their lowest levels in nearly two years, a day after the Federal Reserve signaled it was unlikely to raise interest rates at all this year and might be done with its recent campaign to tighten monetary policy. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note settled at 2.537%, unchanged from Wednesday. The yield earlier in the session touched 2.499%, according to Tradeweb, its lowest intraday level since January 2018, before ticking higher after the release of surprisingly strong regional manufacturing data. Yields, which fall when bond prices rise, have generally drifted lower this year as investors have grown more confident that the Fed will hold rates steady. They dropped sharply Wednesday when the central bank provided greater clarity about its plans. Projections released Wednesday showed 11 of the 17 Fed officials who play a role in interest-rate policy didn't think the bank would need to raise rates at all this year, up from two in December. Most officials now also see the Fed raising rates just one more time in the next three years, down from an estimate of three times last December. While the level of the Fed's primary policy rate has its largest impact on short-term Treasury yields, it has a knock-on effect on medium- to long-term Treasurys, particularly if investors have a sense for what the central bank will be doing with rates going forward. Last fall, when the 10-year yield climbed above 3.2%, many investors had the impression that the Fed was a long way from ending rate increases. That perception, though, is now well in the past, providing a boost to Treasurys and most other types of U.S. debt securities. Overall, "you have a very, very supportive global central-bank backdrop, " said Gennadiy Goldberg, U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities in New York. That is likely to lead to range-bound Treasury yields and "a lot of demand for anything that picks up additional yield" such as corporate bonds. One factor that could keep Treasury yields from falling much further is the current strong demand for riskier assets such as stocks, analysts said. If investors are confident that the U.S. economy will keep growing, demand for riskier assets could divert some cash from Treasurys, preventing the 10-year yield from falling significantly below 2.5%. Fed officials on Wednesday lowered their projection for gross domestic product growth and revised higher their projection for the unemployment rate at year's end. Still, few economists are forecasting an economic contraction in the near future. Giving some cause for optimism, an index of manufacturing activity in the mid-Atlantic region rose to 13.7 in March from a reading of -4.1 in February, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said Thursday. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected a reading of 5.0. Write to Sam Goldfarb at sam.goldfarb@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 21, 2019 16:15 ET (20:15 GMT) Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Big waves, big rides. Many orders hit. Six Targets were hit and three Stops were hit for an overall gain. It's been three days since our last high water mark, hope to reach another high in the next few days. All trades taken on Live and demo account. This thread trading leveraged. CAGR +77.46% Live personal account exposure. Black 'A' in top left corner denotes live account. Demo account used to track trading. White 'A' in top left denotes demo account. Taken from news feed. Trump Offers Fed Board Position to Ex-Campaign Adviser Moore -- 4th Update Fri Mar 22 16:50:00 2019 By Nick Timiraos WASHINGTON -- President Trump said Friday he would nominate former campaign adviser Stephen Moore to serve on the Federal Reserve's board of governors, which would place a fierce critic of the central bank's leadership inside the consensus-oriented institution. Mr. Trump made the offer to Mr. Moore earlier this past week, an administration official said, after reading an opinion article Mr. Moore and a co-author wrote criticizing Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, a regular target of Mr. Trump's disapproval. The article was published last week in The Wall Street Journal, where Mr. Moore previously worked as an editorial-page writer. "I have known Steve for a long time and have no doubt he will be an outstanding choice," Mr. Trump said on Twitter Friday. In a brief telephone interview before Mr. Trump's announcement, Mr. Moore said he would be eager to serve in the position. Mr. Moore hasn't gone through the customary vetting process that is typical before a presidential announcement, the official said, which means it could take weeks or months before the nomination is formally submitted for Senate confirmation. The Fed's seven-member board has two vacancies. Confirmation of Mr. Moore, a commentator on CNN, would bring a more partisan political advocate to a Fed board typically populated by technocratic policy veterans. He has veered from criticizing the Fed's easy-money policies under President Obama, to opposing the Fed's moves to tighten policy after Mr. Trump's election. He has been a vocal supporter of Mr. Trump's policies to cut taxes and regulations. In recent months, Mr. Moore has echoed Mr. Trump's complaints about the Fed's decisions last year to raise borrowing costs, saying they are holding back economic growth. "The Fed is a disaster," Mr. Moore said in a Journal interview last December. "We should have a discussion in this country about whether we need a Fed." Mr. Moore also said in the interview he believed Mr. Powell should resign. "He's totally incompetent," he said. "Everyone's saying he has to be independent. Well, what do we do when we have someone at the Fed who doesn't know what he's doing?" He added, "If he's not responsive to the president, then who's he responsive to?" In a radio interview last December, Mr. Moore said Mr. Trump should be allowed to fire Mr. Powell. "The law says he can replace the Federal Reserve chairman for cause. I would say, well, the cause is that he's wrecking the economy," he said. A Fed spokeswoman declined to comment on Friday. Mr. Moore's views on monetary policy have often placed him at odds with mainstream thinking. He has advocated for setting interest rates with the goal of maintaining stable commodity prices, which are heavily influenced by global demand, especially from emerging-market economies, especially China. Critics of such an approach say it would lead to considerable interest-rate volatility and that it would set rates based on a small segment of economic output. All four of the Fed's rate increases last year were unanimous. Its rate-setting committee includes the board members, the New York Fed president and four of the other 11 regional Fed presidents who vote on a rotating basis. Mr. Moore's recent opposition to the Fed's efforts to unwind its postcrisis policies is relatively new. For years, he argued against the Fed's postcrisis policies to keep rates low and to buy long-term bonds to stimulate growth. He warned the measures would stoke high inflation and erode the value of the dollar, which didn't materialize. In 2014, for example, he said the central bank should quickly unload hundreds of billions of dollars of bonds it purchased to stimulate growth. "The longer it holds onto these securities, the greater the danger the Fed will not be able to control future inflation," he wrote with a colleague at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank where he is a visiting fellow. The Fed opted against any active bond sales, and the much more passive approach it adopted -- allowing some securities to mature without replacing them -- has been heavily criticized by Mr. Trump in recent months for being too heavy handed. Mr. Moore founded and served as president of the Club for Growth, a conservative advocacy group, and he remains close to Lawrence Kudlow, who became director of the White House National Economic Council last year. Reaction to Mr. Moore's selection suggested a contentious Senate confirmation battle could loom. "He's a complete ideologue, and what the Fed doesn't need is a complete ideologue," said David Shulman, senior economist at the UCLA Anderson Forecast. "He's very sycophantic to the president. Trump found his toady." George Selgin, a monetary-policy researcher at the libertarian Cato Institute who has also been a frequent critic of the central bank, called Mr. Moore "unfit" to serve at the Fed. This month's WSJ op-ed, Mr. Selgin said, didn't accurately characterize price pressures in the economy. "A board member should know the difference between inflation and deflation," he said. "Moore's monetary commentary has, for well over a decade, been relentlessly partisan, illogical and fact-fudged," said Benn Steil, director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations. Mr. Moore's supporters said the pick would help shake up entrenched thinking. "The results of the Fed's consensus-driven approach over the last 20 years" have yielded poor results, said J.W. Verret, a law professor at George Mason University who is friends with Mr. Moore. The White House isn't as far along in narrowing down a list of candidates for the second Fed vacancy. Mr. Trump previously nominated former Fed economist Nellie Liang for one of the vacancies. She withdrew from consideration in January after the Senate didn't act on her nomination last fall. In 2017, the president nominated Carnegie Mellon economist Marvin Goodfriend. A Senate committee advanced his nomination last year on a party-line vote, but the nomination expired with the adjournment of the last Congress because it never received a vote on the Senate floor. Nominations to the Fed's board are the primary way for a White House to influence central-bank policy. The 14-year terms are staggered, but because of retirements and because the Senate in 2016 didn't act on two of President Obama's nominations, Mr. Trump has had an unusual opportunity to remake the Fed's board. He tapped Mr. Powell in November 2017 to succeed then-Chairwoman Janet Yellen in February 2018. He has also filled three other board seats, including those now held by Vice Chairman Richard Clarida and Randal Quarles, the vice chairman for bank supervision. One challenge for the White House is that many conservative economists or policy veterans who are popular with Senate Republicans have for many years argued against the kind of easy-money policies advocated by Mr. Trump. Mr. Trump began sharply criticizing the Fed's moves to raise rates in the second half of last year. After the Fed raised its benchmark rate in a unanimous decision last December, Mr. Trump vented to his advisers about firing Mr. Powell. Mr. Powell has said he won't resign from his post if asked and that he doesn't believe he can be dismissed over a policy dispute. Mr. Trump dined at the White House last month with Mr. Powell and Mr. Clarida. The Fed signaled Wednesday it is done raising rates. Mr. Powell at a press conference cited slowing global economic growth, restrained inflation pressures and political uncertainty, including from the Trump administration's tariffs and trade negotiations, as prompting that pivot. Mr. Powell has repeatedly said political considerations never enter into the Fed's policy decisions, and he has avoided responding directly to any of Mr. Trump's broadsides. --Paul Kiernan contributed to this article. Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 22, 2019 16:50 ET (20:50 GMT) Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
It's been 4 days since last high water mark for this strategy. For more information, please see my profile CAGR +68.45% Live personal account exposure. Black 'A' in top left corner denotes live account. Demo account used to track trading. White 'A' in top left denotes demo account. Taken from my news feed. Stephen Moore Says Fed's Pivot Validates Criticism of Interest-Rate Increases Mon Mar 25 16:02:00 2019 By Nick Timiraos and Kate Davidson Former Trump campaign adviser Stephen Moore, the president's latest pick for a Federal Reserve Board seat, said the central bank's recent policy pivot shows that he was right to criticize its December interest-rate increase. Shortly after that rate increase, Mr. Moore delivered a scathing assessment of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in a December interview with The Wall Street Journal, calling him "totally incompetent" and saying he should resign. Mr. Moore said in a Journal interview Monday that the Fed's rate increase was a mistake but that he could have chosen his words about Mr. Powell more carefully. "They made a mistake. Nobody's perfect. They've admitted they made a mistake," he said. "Was I harsh? Yes, and I wish I hadn't been." Fed officials have dramatically altered their policy path since the December meeting, though they haven't explicitly called it a mistake. In early January, Mr. Powell signaled the Fed was moving to the sidelines after raising rates four times last year. In new projections last week, most officials projected no rate increases this year if the economy performs as expected. Officials also announced they will end the runoff of their asset portfolio in October. Mr. Powell attributed the change to greater worries that global growth could weaken amid recent market volatility and rising political uncertainty, partly the result of an increase in trade tensions. The Fed's policy pivot is "an example of where I was right, and where my critics were wrong," said Mr. Moore Monday. A Fed spokeswoman declined to comment. Mr. Trump's decision to nominate a sharp critic of the Fed's current leadership represents his most concrete step to influence its policy following his monthslong criticism of its interest-rate increases. Mr. Moore's impending nomination shows "the attacks on the Fed and Powell won't stop no matter what the Fed does," Ian Katz, a financial policy analyst at Capital Alpha Partners, said in a note to clients on Sunday. "It was never plausible that the pause in interest rate hikes would silence [Trump's] criticism of the Fed." Because Republicans increased their Senate majority after last fall's elections, Mr. Moore faces better odds at being confirmed than two earlier White House picks whose nominations languished. The extra cushion -- Republicans how have 53 seats, up from 51 last year -- means Mr. Moore could win confirmation without any Democratic support and even a couple of GOP defections. Until now, Mr. Trump's Fed nominees largely have been nonideological pragmatic policy experts who are well regarded within the central banking establishment. Mr. Moore, who has a master's degree in economics from George Mason University and finished his undergraduate studies at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, breaks with that pattern because he has spent his career as a more partisan champion of lower taxes. Mr. Moore founded the Club for Growth, the conservative advocacy group, is a former member of The Wall Street Journal's editorial board, and served as chief economist at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank. Those bona fides enabled him to advocate for Mr. Trump's insurgent primary campaign in 2016 when many Republicans were skeptical. Republican senators defended Mr. Moore's credentials on Monday. "Steve is a sunny optimist and a thoughtful economist," said Sen. Ben Sasse (R., Neb.). "Steve's nomination has thrown the card-carrying members of the Beltway establishment into a tizzy, and that says little about Steve and his belief in American ingenuity, but a lot about central planners' devotion to groupthink." In a statement, Sen. Lamar Alexander (R., Tenn.) said he expected to support Mr. Moore's nomination. Still, Mr. Moore's confirmation fight could be bruising because it might animate concerns that Mr. Trump will be able to politicize the central bank, which has carefully defended its nonpartisan approach to policy-making. "Steve is a perfectly amiable guy, but he does not have the intellectual gravitas for this important job," wrote Harvard University economist Greg Mankiw, a former adviser to President George W. Bush, on his blog Friday. Mr. Moore could be pressed to explain to lawmakers why he went from criticizing the Fed's moves to support economic growth earlier this decade to calling for the Fed to halt its withdrawal of stimulus last year. Anyone "who goes to the grocery store...knows our monetary policy is completely out of control, that inflation is here," Mr. Moore said in 2011 in an interview with Newsmax.com. "All of this easy money has become like a narcotic for the U.S. economy," he said. In 2013, Mr. Moore said the Fed needed a chair with the "guts" to take away the proverbial punchbowl and in 2014, he advocated that the Fed ramp up sales of the long-term bonds it bought after the financial crisis to support growth. On Monday, Mr. Moore said his worries about an inflation surge were mistaken. "The prediction that I and many made, that we would have an inflationary effect from these policies, was wrong," he said. "The proof is in the pudding. We didn't get inflation." Mr. Moore said Monday the Fed should consider cutting interest rates to reverse two quarter-percentage point increases it made in September and December. Still, Mr. Moore said he wasn't advocating for monetary stimulus. He said the Fed should instead seek to keep prices and the dollar stable, and he said recent declines in commodity prices raised concerns about deflationary forces in the broader global economy. "I want to make this very clear: I'm not a dove at all. I'm an inflation hawk. I'm also a deflation hawk," he said. "The fundamental point of disagreement here is whether or not we are in a deflationary environment." The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the personal-consumption expenditures price index, rose 1.75% for the year ended December, below the Fed's 2% target. A separate measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices rose 1.9%. Meanwhile, an index that measures the value of the dollar against a basket of foreign currency has been relatively stable over the past 10 months. It is up 7% over the last year but is still 7% below the recent highs seen after Mr. Trump's election in late 2016. Mr. Moore couldn't easily shape policy as one of six Fed board members and one of 11 voters on the central bank's rate-setting committee. But he could still garner attention to his policy views by delivering speeches and dissenting on policy votes. If Mr. Moore is ultimately confirmed and Mr. Trump wins reelection next year, Mr. Moore could become a candidate to succeed Mr. Powell when his term ends in February 2022, subject to Senate confirmation. Mr. Powell and his two predecessors, Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen, had served as Fed governors before being named chair. Mr. Moore on Monday disputed criticism that he would serve as a puppet for the president. "I'm a big fan of the president, and I'm a big fan of what he's done for the economy," he said. But he pointed to his opposition to Mr. Trump's steel tariffs as counterproductive as an example of his independent thinking. "I'm not a sycophant for Trump," he said. Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com and Kate Davidson at kate.davidson@wsj.com (END) Dow Jones Newswires March 25, 2019 16:02 ET (20:02 GMT) Copyright (c) 2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.