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Divergences

Discussion in 'Journals' started by romik, Jul 2, 2006.

romik
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Quote from romik:

EBAY's weekly chart looking bullish IMHO, if I wasn't maxed out on my virtual capital, I would have added a long position Ebay based on a weekly BLD in MACD. I would say it could be a steady climb from now, making a stop below the reaction low of $22.83 entering with 50% of max position size as there is a 3BRD on a daily chart, so looking set for a pullback and THEN adding another 50% near 20ma and/or lower BB level.

Weekly chart here looking bullish IMHO:

And a daily chart showing a 3BRD in HIST, pullback expected:

I would also buy a mixture of 2 puts contracts for hedging purposes, perhaps Nov 06 27.50/25.00 or just the 27.50 strike.

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+14% on this call right now, didn't trade it though

#211 Nov 22, 2006

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Quote from romik:

LONG YI Z6 mini Silver 06 future contract

Current at the time of call: $11.19 30% position
PT1: $12.00
PT2: depends
Average down: $10.60 (30%), 9.60 (40%)
Stop: $9.00

A weak A-class BLD on a daily chart in MACD/HIST/RSI/CCI.
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+16% at the mo

#212 Nov 22, 2006

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Quote from romik:

Short ABI (NYSE) Applera Corp - Applied Biosystems Group

Current: $30.84
PT1: $28.00
PT2: $25.00
PT3: N/A
Average down: N/A
Stop: $33.60
BRD in MACD/HIST/RSI/STOCH on a weekly chart attached.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ABI
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currently down 21.23% due to a gap on earnings

#213 Nov 22, 2006

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Quote from romik:

Quote from romik:

DELL (NASD) Dell Inc

Current: $23.87 1/2 max position
PT1: $29.00
PT2: $32.00
PT3: N/A
Stop: This is a tricky one, as the stock has broken through all recent support levels, actually from 2003, developing a double top on weekly in 2005, but no risk no gain, so I would scale in with 50% @ $22.50 and stop @ $21.
BLD in RSI(perhaps making a double bottom, depends on the settings)/MACD HIST. CCI in heavily oversold territory recently and pulling upwards breaking -100 on the way up. All on weekly here.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=DELL
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It's shot passed the stop level and I have decided to hold this one for the time being, if this was a small cap stock I would have dropped it by now, I see a possible B class BLD developing on weekly in HIST, possibly adding to position @ $16 range, which will prove to be a 'make it or break it' point for this stock. This is turning out to be a positional play, rather than a swing trade.

#############UPDATE######################

Still holding this long position and will average down on lower price level, if there is a negative reaction to earnings announcement, which I believe is already priced in anyway. I am not into news and fundamentals in this journal, but this whole case with batteries is, how should I say, is not big enough to downgrade this company. How many car manufacturers recall their vehicles, quite a few and that's real safety issues, we drive these vehicles at fast speeds and our lives are at stake. These faulty batteries are made by Sony, so it is Sony's issue as much as DELL's. Anyway, that's not a big deal IMO, slowing down demand, now that's a different matter and THAT IMO is already priced in. Now let's hope techies will start moving this stock.
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+17.50% at the mo

#214 Nov 22, 2006

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Quote from romik:

LONG - SLR (NYSE) Solectron Corp

Hedge: Buy 200 Jan 2007 $2.50 Puts @ $0.10

Current: $3.18
Average down: ~$2.90
PT1: $3.70
PT2: $4.30
PT3: $6.50
Stop: ~$2.50

BLD in MACD/RSI on the weekly chart.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SLR

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+9.75% at the mo

#215 Nov 22, 2006

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Quote from romik:

Quote from romik:

T (NYSE) AT&T, Inc

Current: $27.89
PT1: $26.50
PT2: $25.00
PT3: $23.00 not certain on this one, see below
Stop: $29.00
B Class BRD in MACD HIST/BRD in CCI on a daily chart attached. If price fails to go through 28.50 on high volume, then a double top will be in the making and PT3 will be more possible in that case.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=T
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Though PT1's been hit and I should have exited @ entry if PT2 would not materialize...I am staying in this position, actually I am going to average this position @ $28.42 (average price) as it looks like it is developping a very cute BRD on a weekly chart on all 3 oscillators. Here is the chart

Though PT1's been hit and I should have exited @ entry if PT2 would not materialize...I am staying in this position, actually I am going to average this position @ $28.42 (average price) as it looks like it is developping a very cute BRD on a weekly chart on all 3 oscillators. Here is the chart
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down 15.9% on this one at the mo

#216 Nov 22, 2006

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Up to date PnL:

LU -6.8%
SI +7.34%
AMGN +6.79% (+8.84% no scaling out)
AAPL +12.18% (+22.21% no scaling out)
CPB +2.65%
AIT +1.42%
EBAY +12.39%
CAL +6.67%
YI +11.95%
IPG +0.53% (-3.2% on 50k short, +100% on 75 Oct 06 10 calls)
CL -6.37%

#217 Nov 22, 2006

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Another call this one (PL) based on a BLD was up 18% still holding position.

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=78788

#218 Nov 22, 2006

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LONG USD/JPY

Current at the time of call: 116.53 50% position
PT1: ~119.00+
PT2: depends
Average down: ~115.50 (50%) or scale in @ 118.65
Stop: 113.90

Incomplete A-class BLD on a daily chart in HIST
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#219 Nov 29, 2006

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Quote from romik:

LONG USD/JPY

Current at the time of call: 116.53 50% position
PT1: ~119.00+
PT2: depends
Average down: ~115.50 (50%) or scale in @ 118.65
Stop: 113.90

Incomplete A-class BLD on a daily chart in HIST
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Added 50% position size @ 115.52. Average long 116.025

#220 Nov 30, 2006

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