OK - gotta weigh in here again. Let's take ten year treasury note futures from 7/29 as a recent example germaine to what I trade. Going by memory here, but I think my point is valid enough to post. After the Consumer Confidence release, the first good, solid divergence gets you into a nice short position after the big run-up. Nice winner. But the subsequent divergences for the next three hours or so gets you long three or four times - and you're good for a few tics and maybe a few minutes, but then wham! the downtrend continues in a big, big way. So, how does one segregate trend pullback or trend continuation on a one-minute timeframe divergence? I mean, to make money consistently trading this method you can't be looking for homeruns - just bloop singles. That's fine, but maybe the divergence should be telling me that I can buy or sell a pullback at a much better price rather than picking a bottom or top in a contra-trending market? Aren't you really trying to pick a top or bottom in the shortest timeframe possible? If the market was trending down, why don't I just get long after two subsequent higher high/higher low 1-min. bars and forget all the divergence interpretation? I mean, by the time I recognize a divergence and jump on the bandwagon, 2 times out of 3 my timeframe for that trade and its' potential is very limited.
OT. The topic is 1 min div. Your post amply points out a serious money making limitation for 1 min divergence of stuff. Naturally, we do not want to continue in the space of what's wrong here. We need to turn to making money. This is what makes it wothwhile for me to respond; this Q: "Aren't you really trying to pick a top or bottom in the shortest timeframe possible?" It is possible for anyone to get to strange places. We all seem to hop from rock to rock to get to where we are. My answer is No, we are trying to make money. "trying" is a no no in ET according to some champion crappers here. I would like to forcefully suggest that people always work on the fractal that best represents the pace of the market at any given time. The Q would have to have a one word change to be a Q to get us to the right answer for making money. Change "possible" to "available". Picking tops and bottoms is fun but not too profitable. What is profitable is getting into trends AFTER tops or bottoms. All fast paced trends fail to reverse. They hover in consolidation at the S and R levels they failed to brak through. So skip thinking about making money on these until you get apersonal breakthrough to learn to slalom consolidation. Instead of looking for tops and bottoms it is much better to look for middles where price is taking a rest. THIS IS WHERE DIVERGENCE OF ANY PERIODICITY REALLY PAYS OFF. Today is a terrific day for this matter. And we have an hour to get ready for THE DIVERGENCE OF THE DAY. everyday has a DIVERGENCE OF THE DAY.. ON ES mini, YOU MAKE AT LEAST FIVE POINTS. Okay add it up for a year on one contract. 250 times 250 is a fun value. I posted this AM that the centering value for ES is 987.2 set a bracket before 13:15 and let the market take you in for 5 points. Exit then and bank it. you will do it on the DIVERGENCE OF THE DAY. I'll do a divergence of the day every day for the next week. that's 250 times 5.
I don't see the MACD divergence if you're referring to the chart that I posted here:http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=298891 I do see the head n shoulders though. Can you clarify ?
Same chart as in the original message: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=298891 Notice the failed H&S short signal about 12:12? Just wanted to point out that H&S patterns are much more difficult to trade at the hard right edge. If you have a mechanical way to detect them, you can backtest the pattern.