Distribution of up/down candles in a given series (indicator)

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by andre.salmeron, Jul 22, 2020.

  1. Okay, so this trader in Brazil (whose name I will not say here) is going around the internet claiming to be the "creator of probabilistic analysis" and named a theory after himself. I went through some of his videos, as I saw loads of people praising him for genius and noticed the very distinct smell of snake oil.

    So, from what I was able to gather over some rather long and elusive videos, is this. He "created" an indicator that takes the past X candles and presents them as a percentage: say, 53% up and 47% down. The strategy is basically to wait for an "abnormal" distribution (say, 45%-55%) and bet on the fact that they should tend towards equilibrium.

    I am pretty sure I've seen one of these indicators before, and some scammers in Brazil have plagiarized indicators before, slapping their names as their own. This guy actually compares himself to Dow, John Bollinger and Fibonacci (apparently he thinks he was a trader?). I am not going to go into the actual statistical theory behind this, but I was shocked people are not calling him out for claiming he was the first person to ever try this.

    Any thoughts regarding the self-proclaimed "father of probability analysis"?
    murray t turtle likes this.
  2. %%
    Most likely he has a Mr Dow Theory Book/of Dow Jones Newspaper/LOL/WSJ
    [1851-1902 AD; he is maybe late to that game??]
  3. easymon1


    mr andre.salmeron, long time no see. how's it going

    your boy there comparing his thoughts to Fibonacci is a tall order, lol. Wonder if he would come by and paint some frescoes on the ceiling in the style of Leonardo and Mike Angelo, shape up a couple of garden statues while he's here.

    So what is the name of the Fibbo-Not's indicator, what handle is it called by?
    Seems kinda crude, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't work.

    A similar version would be wrsi, that measures trend momentum as indicated by candlestick direction and length.
    To simplify the calculation explanation, RSI has been broken down into its basic components: RS, Average Gain and Average Loss.

    What have you been up to trading-wise?
    you been posting here and i just missed it?
    Last edited: Jul 24, 2020
    andre.salmeron likes this.
  4. easymon1


    This should be up there, sorry bout that.
    andre.salmeron likes this.
  5. How are you my friend? I have not been posting here, I am actually caught up with freelance jobs and I am actually working on a small guide to what I call "integrated" technical analysis (which is simply using price, volume, volatility and fundamentals as part of every analysis). Has been going pretty neatly, I am also publishing weekly on Brazil's Investing.com and submitted a couple articles to Stocks and Commodities magazine (not sure if they'll get published though). I'll try to get back to posting here, I miss interacting with other traders.

    Trading-wise I have been doing pretty well, although I'm currently only doing simulator trades until I can put up enough capital (~3.5 - 5k dollars) to actually start doing real trades without overstepping my risk management. Have been profitable for the past three or so months, after finally arriving at an operational system that fits my purposes and switching to swing trading (still day trade some instruments, though).

    I also started using Bollinger Bands in order to evaluate and maintain my consistency, basically I am using a 10 SMA of my trade results, limiting my gains/losses to 1.5x Standard Deviations and focusing on keeping low volatility rather than achieving higher yields, while keeping liquidity intact. Has been working like a charm:

    (values in BRL)

    Thank you for posting the WRSI, I'll def look into it but it's not the same thing. The indicator (if we may call it that) is simply the percentage of bullish and bearish candles over X periods, which is rather useless because it's such a small sample (e.g. 120 candles), therefore individual results are still pretty much ruled by chaotic behavior. However, most people are not aware so the guy can scam them as he pleases (his name is Ronal Cutrim and his "theory" is named after himself).

    What about you? How's your trading? Wish you the best!
    .sigma and Pkay like this.
  6. easymon1


    Because i'm a friend to all, lol.
    Besides that, when you first posted here months ago, i happened to exchange posts with you here on the forum at that time where you briefly outlined your method.

    Wow, Stocks and Commodities. There's another ET'er who has published in S&C. Way to go.
    people Pay for this? what a world.

    my trading is blood Simple. hammers at support and resistance, etc. 1 minute, 5m charts.

    Good to see you back.
  7. Pkay


    What time frame are you using the 10 SMA on, thanks?
  8. There's a lot of scams and unsubstantiated claims in the educational business. I'd say it's the rule more than the exception.

    Most newbies seems to want to believe only too easily and are easily impressed.
  9. No time frame, I use the results of the individual trades I take.