Hi I am still wondering how one could distinguish sideways market from strong trend. Everyone knows that is crucial. One day we could see perfect signals from indicators or PA that we will have strong trend, but it occurs that we end in sideways convulsion. What symptoms, what actions, what formations may draw our attention that despite clean signals for major movements we can see only sideways whipsawing? But pls - dont write about stuff we can notice when the damage is done and we are after close..
I'm afraid what your after is only gained from experience, there is no quick way. What is sideways whipsawing in the first place? Distribution?, re accumulation? What your actually asking is 'where are we in TREND'? Price and volume will give you clues... happy hunting....
First of all, learn about the reasons why trends start because more often than not it has absolutely nothing to do with the price action itself which is the reasons why those focus on the price itself will continue have problems seeing those earlier signals. Secondly, learn about volatility analysis involving expanding and contracting volatility as your early signals... Even better, learn about supply/demand to help you recognize sideways or trends as they are occurring and not via hindsight. All the above are searchable here at ET and/or Google along with your own market experience so that you can do your own homework. Mark
Lets say I have done my homework, buy I am curious of your points of view. I 'd really appreciate more statistical/methodical approach, as this forum is like big black-hole - lots of junk and essential infos are hidden in 100>posts threads. Of course thx for your answer
I don't think you've done your homework based upon your first message. As for my viewpoint...I've already given you a starting point for you to do the homework via searching past discussions of the following topics... * Supply/Demand Analysis * Volatility Analysis * None price action reasons for sideway markets and trend markets http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/search.php?s= http://www.google.com If I were you I would start with the ET search link above due to the fact that you're already here. In my opinion, I think there's enough information in those +100 post threads that are specifically about the topic involving a methodical approach to keep you busy for about a year at the minimum. ------------- Hint 1: There's two big threads here at ET that deals specifically with supply/demand and those +100 post threads do not contain any junk because they were well moderated. Thread starter is no longer participating at ET. Hint 2: There's another +100 post thread here at ET that deals specifically with recognizing a trend and his thread was also well moderated to keep the junk out of it. Thread starter recently announced his departure from ET but his thread is still talked about by many price action only traders. ------------- After doing your homework, you can then share your viewpoint because those threads contain a wealth of information for any newbie trader or for confirmation to a veteran trader that others also see what he/she has known for many years. Last of all, you just said you've done the homework... If so, what specific +100 post threads have you been studying. ??? Mark
Aloha mate, um you cant actually tell if a trend is there until you either; a. Make a trade in that direction (i call that gambling n chaser trades!) b. Till after its happened. So its always alot easier to just trade off spike retractments and market intraday highs/lows, then trying to workout what the trend is, and then get in and make money of it whe you have no way of being able to know how far through the trend you are when you get in. And if theres enough of it on the chart for you to be able to see it, that usually means that the trend has come to the end.
================= Great question,E-Energy More data, the better[years & years/all of it ]; more focused , the better. Energy is not same as SPY, no matter the correlation. 50 period moving average helps; also you asked a good question but do not ignore a series of closes,even though you dismissed it,perhaops irrelevent to intraday it is not. The [series of closes, again much data,closes are what defines a bear or bull market; true both have sideways trends, but long live the difference!!!!!!!. Ps, by the more data the better, i mean with all the data, QQQQ easiy goes sideways @ $50 or $30......., but in the bear market we are in, sidways with a downward bias. So thats how all the data/wisdom helps.Not a prediction. A repeating pattern, again , again; sideways in a bear trend, sideways in a bull trend is VERY, very different.