I don't have detail to refute your analysis but just saying Disney/ABC is so much bigger than just Orlando so a hurricane is not going to have a factor in earnings, especially since hurricanes have hit every year since the park opened in 1971. In other words it is not an abnormal event. Plus now they have ABC and ESPN as part of their revenue streams not to mention Star Wars franchise and merchandising, Top Rank boxing on ESPN, and several Disney movie releases. Earnings missed by a hair in August but stock has held somewhat steady after the drop... Just saying since you said this is a long term play and your analysis was based on a hurricane and Houston has nothing to do with ABC, ESPN, Star Wars, movies and merchandising or Disney parks in September when kids are back in schools. No dog in this fight though...
I think the ESPN/ABC/Disney Channel portion will grow even bigger because the parks and resorts have limits but the channels can grow ad revenue and programming. ESPN is a money maker but not sure about ABC anymore. I am surprised merchandising is so small of total revenues but I guess the others make billions and t-shirts and mickey dolls is not as big. They are quite an interesting case study in multi-media entertainment and hospitality.
Well..... they just fell off the cliff on revised earning guidance.... down. $98.50 They cited Harvey and Irma. Imagine that. I really should get paid around here.
• Disney Went Fox Hunting Walt Disney held (unsuccessful) talks to buy most of 21st Century Fox, according to CNBC. The disclosure effectively put Fox in play, pushing its stock up 7%, while Disney's rose 1.7%, on market perceptions that the company is serious about beefing up content for its planned streaming services and broadening its existing distribution as it prepares to go head-to-head with Netflix and other disruptors. Fox would have kept control of its sports and news coverage, as antitrust concerns would have blocked a full-on merger. Fortune
Fox—Disney Deal Is Back On Walt Disney resumed talks with 21st Century Fox over the purchase of Fox's movie studio and other assets with the notable exception of the Fox broadcast network. Included in the package, according to reports, is Fox's stake in U.K.-based Sky Plc. It's not clear whether Disney would go ahead with Fox's plans to buy the remaining 61% of Sky, which are currently being reviewed on both antitrust and governance grounds by the U.K. Sky was among the biggest gainers early Monday in London, suggesting the market sees better chances for the process if Disney owns it rather than Fox. Fortune
Disney's Fox Deal: What We Know And What We Want to Know (1) http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/disney-fox-deal-rupert-murdoch-how-much-12428830.php
It looks like the chance to buy Netflix may have passed Disney buy. Their market caps are now almost identical: ""