Discussion in 'Stocks' started by vanzandt, Aug 30, 2017.

  1. vanzandt


    I'm calling it a short right now at $103.30
    If it gets anywhere's near $104 today... back up the proverbial truck.
    This is not a trade. Long term play.
  2. Chris Mac

    Chris Mac

    Bad timing IMO. Already oversold and negative div. with RSI.
    I would not short it below $107 (upper band of the channel).


    vanzandt likes this.
  3. vanzandt


    I completely agree with your chart assessment... but my theory here is really quite simple. Historically DIS always gets hammered if they miss earnings by so much as a penny. As silly as this sounds, its a hurricane play. Houston is the 4rth largest city in the U.S. Millions and millions of people are going to have to readjust their lives. Movies, vacations, ESPN, etc.... Houston HAS to be worth several pennies (at least) of earnings that aren't gonna be there. Unless they sand-bagged last time, which is always possible, they are either going to have to re-state guidance or they'll just flat out miss.
    I have no position yet and I appreciate your observations as always. Thanks Chris.
  4. vanzandt


    Plus... I think their decision to pull out of NFLX and start their own streaming biz is the dumbest thing I've ever heard. When companies start doing draconian moves like this... they're reaching because they have problems. Next thing you know, they'll buy TWTR. Which will be good for TWTR...and tank DIS some more.
    My guess is we'll see a gap down into the nineties within a month after a few high vis downgrades emerge.
  5. Since they have cut dividends in 2015 and initial decline in the price in 2016, they have been gradually going up .
    ROE, ROA have been increasing.
    One thing I can see is their profit margin depends on seasonality and they show very predicable pattern in their revenue. September is their worst period every year.

    It may go in your way, good luck :)


    Data for this Date Range
    June 30, 2017 16.62%
    March 31, 2017 17.91%
    Dec. 31, 2016 16.77%
    Sept. 30, 2016 13.48%
    June 30, 2016 18.19%
    March 31, 2016 16.52%
    Dec. 31, 2015 18.89%
    Sept. 30, 2015 11.91%
    June 30, 2015 18.95%
    March 31, 2015 16.92%
    Dec. 31, 2014 16.29%
    Sept. 30, 2014 12.10%
    June 30, 2014 18.01%
    March 31, 2014 16.46%
    Dec. 31, 2013 14.95%
    Sept. 30, 2013 12.05%
    June 30, 2013 15.95%
    March 31, 2013 14.34%
    Dec. 31, 2012 12.19%
    Sept. 30, 2012 11.54%
    June 30, 2012 16.51%
    March 31, 2012 11.87%
    Dec. 31, 2011 13.58%
    Sept. 30, 2011 10.43%
    June 30, 2011 13.83%
    March 31, 2011 10.38%
    Dec. 31, 2010 12.15%
    Sept. 30, 2010 8.57%

    About Profit Margin
    Profit margin represents the percentage of revenue that a company keeps as profit after accounting for fixed and variable costs. It is calculated by dividing net income by revenue. The profit margin is mainly used for internal comparisons, because acceptable profit margins vary between industries. In general, narrow profit margins indicate increased volatile earnings. For companies with significant fixed costs, wide profit margins reduce the risk that a decline in sales will cause a net profit loss.
  6. vanzandt


  7. vanzandt


    There's $101.92
    victorycountry likes this.
  8. Van any other stocks :)) ??
  9. vanzandt


    Ahhh..... they'll come along.... soon enough. They always do.
  10. vanzandt


    Pretty sure Irma's not gonna help Disney much.
    #10     Sep 5, 2017