Success takes time as well as many other factors. Too often people don't give themselves enough time. Trading since 2003 (I believe this was the stated time or there about) is impressive, but not really a long time. Personally it took me about 3 years or so ust to get my total strategy together and then another 2 years to just get REALLY good at trade executions. Granted I wasn't trading full time, but I was always fully invested. Finally I got to the point of doing trading/investing full time and haven't punched the clock in over 2 years (started in the markets in '96, it takes time) Too many times we put pressure on ourselves and unrealistic expectations. We get overextended in our personal lives which put strain on our trading lives and goals (debt, poisonous relationships, chemical dependence etc...). The markets aren't there to feed you on a daily basis. Feeding yourself on a daily basis from the fruits of your market labors is a byproduct, not an end result. Lastly, if it's your passion, you will find a way. Market success is a journey, not an end result. Perhaps the most underrated aspect of this game is its psychology. It is mentally tough and often you will find things out about yourself you never knew. Maybe it's not so much your "system" as your attitude or angle of approach/attack. Constant personal growth in knowledge and technique is a must. Change is necessary for markets to be efficient and we also must accept that change. I belive the death of one's ego in the face of the market is a must. It's much easier to lose your opinion than your capital. You must also be able to take a more wholistic/business approach to your trading and investing. Have you devised a successful money management system? Are you putting the effects of compounding in your favor? It's just not all about winning trades. Lastly, never mistake a bull market for brains. Too often this last mistake is made and results in the demise of many investors/traders. Remember, resources flow to the hands of those that are the smartest and most efficient, it just takes time. Just some random thoughts and of course JMHO. Good Luck.
As you can see by my name, there actually is a holy grail. I won't post much in this forum as I do not have the time to boast about anything I just did or am going to do. I spend 90% of my time going thru charts. I have had better than 20% returns for five consecutive years. It was exactly 5 years ago when I learned there was a holy grail. The true HOLY GRAIL in trading is MONEY MANAGEMENT and POSITION SIZING!!!! You can be right on your stock selection 30% of the time and still make good money in the market as long as you cut your losses short and let your profits run. If you have a 100,000 dollar portfolio then pick a percentage loss you are willing to accept. Just remember that you can NEVER LOSE MORE THAT 2% OR 2000 in this example. It is far better to lower the risk to 1% when you are first starting out. If you determine you wish to purchase a stock that has 2.00 risk (downside support) and a 5 dollar gain (upside resistance) then you can only buy a maximum of 500 shares of this particular stock if you wish to risk 1% of your portfolio. If you wish to increase your succes rate then the only other thing you have to do is ALWAYS trade in the direction of the market. If you are not sure of the direction of the market THEN DO NOT TRADE! I normally only trade from September thru February of every year. Obviously fundamental and technical analysis will help even further, but I can tell you one thing. You can randomly pick stocks and as long as your initial risk-reward ratio is at least 2:1 and you trade with the trend of the market you cannot help but make money.
You have no system that you have back tested/forward tested to give you confidence. Also you probably dont understand the laws of probability and how they relate to successfull trading. You probably think you do, but really you dont. Even a fantastic system can go months without making money. Trading can be as hard or as easy as you make it. There are long tails in price movements, everything else is random, however most times you cant predict these long tails but you can devise systems to catch them, most times these signals will be counterintuitive and are unlikely to be found by looking at charts. Any edge that exploits these long tails is likey to be very small, so you need to learn how to trade large size, and manage your money to ensure that a long losing period doesnt confuse or frustrate or bankrupt you.
You are disillusioned because there is NO such thing as a SYSTEM to make you money..Not in trading, not in horse racing, not in lotto, etc.... To think you can develop something that will BEAT the market is being foolish.... You can make money on a stock but you can't beat the market...same as you can make money on A horse race but you can't beat the ponies!! My advice to you is to give it up and never look back...do it for fun and if you make money, fine..otherwise you will just ruin your health.
sorry to say but that ain't a holy grail for me, that is just some marginal survival. Jesse Livermore aptly said: "Once when you know how to trade properly the millions come easier than the hundreds did when you were still in the dark" (And he averaged 150% on account per week) Sherlock
Great thread and magnificent posts ! A true pleasure to read well thought out and constructive ideas. I specially appreciated oldtrader's post. From my experience I can tell you that no system, money management, book, idea, best advice, time frame, instrument or length of time in front of the screen will make you profitable in this business UNTIL you change your own self concept. The trick is making your conscious and subconscious mind work in harmony to take on the task of believing in yourself 100 percent of the time without fear or hesitation in an environment that is always uncertain and out of your control. At the end it's all about psychology. Good luck to you !
Most STRONGLY disagree, there are systems that consistently make money. For one person that is using charts, for another person that is 100% mechanical and for another person again it is looking at the tape. But it will take time (lots of it), dedication (lots of it) and hard work (lots of it). (and unfortunately, if you do not watch out, your health will suffer) (Sitting on the beach does not help you getting there, it ain't that easy. lol) Sherlock As Sherlock Holmes said to Dr Watson: "Doctor, how often have you been to my house?" Watson: "Hundreds of times" Sherlock: "And you have noticed the steps to my study?" Watson: "Yes" Sherlock: "How many steps are there?" Watson: "Err... Don't know, never counted them" Sherlock: "There are 13 steps. You see, but you do not observe"
This thread is going along well, and I just want to warn those that might take it astray, not to. Keep up the quality posting. I would like to invite more of our veteran members to come out of the shadows, and participate more freely in the monitored dialogues of this area.