Evening Update 2013.02.14 - Part 2 As the notes on the chart indicate, I kept shorting the rally throughout the day on every small weakness. The assumption was that market is heading to 1500 â 1510 area, but working through a correction . I still like the assumption, but decided to give a trade some time and keep it overnight to let it either workout or prove me wrong. The problem is that I will be proven wrong above 1522 â 1523, and I am short at average of 1516.50. So if I am wrong, I will pay a good percentage of my small capital to find that out. I am making the same mistake again â jumping on the trades before getting confirmation on short-term charts. To summarize, I still like the trade, but hate the entry price. ____________________________________________________________ Trade Keys: Magenta arrow down â open short trade Magenta arrow up â close short trade Green arrow up â open long trade Green arrow down â close long trade
Morning Update 2013.02.15 Short position established yesterday at average price of 1516.50 is either wrong or early (same as wrong when trading short-term with high leverage). On intermediate-term level, market did not correct too much and is now testing high level. I will be watching short-term price action to decide what to do next. If market does correct, the logical support is at SPY 151.50, which gives my short-term trade poor risk / reward.
Evening Update 2013.02.15 - Part 2 As market declined to a support level at SPY 151.50, I closed a position at ES 1513.25 and took a small profit of ~ 3.4 points and called it a day. Next week I will be working on improving the timing of entries, and trading off the short timeframe price action or what is happening at the moment as opposed to my expectation of the what I think is going to happen. ____________________________________________________________ Trade Keys: Magenta arrow down â open short trade Magenta arrow up â close short trade Green arrow up â open long trade Green arrow down â close long trade
Weekly Summary Feb 11-17, 2013 Since it was a short week for me with only two trades, in this weekly summary report I am only posting updated account balance. Starting next week I will be posting weekly summary with equity chart and high-level trading statistics. Beginning Balance (Feb 12) - $15,463 Current Balance (Feb 15) - $16,214 Weekly gain - $751 Weekly % gain - 4.9%
I will not be trading for the next two weeks, as I will be out of the country. I will post a summary of my trading for the past week (which got lost in transition to a new site and back) on March 11th.
I am restarting the journal after a month off. Below is the summary of my trading since inception - lots of volatility and a small gain.
I went short the market on Thursday. Bought 15 puts on ES with strike 1,540 and expiration of May 17th. I am basically all-in (based on the speculative account I am tracking here) on this position. The rationale is that the market will most likely have a strong pullback as it just hit all time high. Also, there appears to be an increased hedging activity by institutions - index put/call ratio went up on Friday and VIX is climbing, while the market is making new highs. In addition, treasuries were climbing in a last week in response to Cyprus. If I am wrong on timing, and selloff happens from a higher level, I should at least be able to exit the position at break even. Considering the leverage, it should be a gut wrenching ride. Trade screenshot is below.