My patience and to some extent lazyness is paying off. Portfolio is up nicely. Time to book profits. Current positions are as follows: AUD 100k EUR -400k EURCHF 100k ES 2 GC 1 Going short AUD as a start. Taking following trades today: 1. Sell AUD 500k (to get net short 400k exposure): 1.0366 2. Sell ES 2 @ 1272 So, net portfolio looks like AUD -400k EURO -400k EURCHF 100k GC 1 Note: I will do only an end of month profit analysis and post equity curve then.
Trades: 1. Buy 400k AUD @ 1.0251 2. Buy 200k Euro @ 1.28, Sell order for 200k Euro at 1.29 and 100k each at 1.295, 1.3, 1.305, 1.31, 1.315, 1.32 (So, a total of 800k in sell orders, and current position of 200k). Net portfolio looks like EURO -200k EURCHF 100k GC 1 I missed a good long on Crude, will probably go long crude after NFP today.
Bought 1 million EURCHF at 1.215. Order to buy 700k @ 1.2105, 800k at 1.206, and 1 million at 1.202. Stop 1.5 million @ 1.195 and rest at 1.19 (If stop gets hit, will lose around 50k-60k out of starting balance of 100k) - But risk is ok since stop won't get hit HAHA
Though I dont expect any change in SNB peg policy, but still we are in a new regime after Hilde's resignation. So, new orders instead of above old ones: Order to buy 400k @ 1.2105, 400k at 1.206, and 1 million at 1.202. Trades: Buy 400k AUD @ 1.031 (looking for scaling out around 1.04/1.05). Again missed opportunity to buy Crude yesterday when it had gone down....... Ahh
Trades: 1. Sell 600k AUD @ 1.0345, so net short 400k position. (AUD is highly correlated to ES, but recently AUD has shown relative weakness compared to ES. 2. Sell 4 ES @ 1293 Orders: 1. Buy 1 GC @ 1630. 2. Sell 300k AUD @ 1.039 Note: This is a great time to buy 1250 puts on S&P, but I would like to keep the journal pure delta1 for the time being. So, selling ES instead of buying puts.
Buying 200k AUD @ 1.0335, and 1 ES @ 1290 - trying to reduce short exposure here. Have been too correlated. New Orders 1. Sell 100k AUD @ 1.036 and Sell 2 ES @ 1310 Edit: Got filled 700k long @ 1.2105 on EURCHF.
Portfolio as of last update was: AUD -200k @ 1.0345 EURO -200k EURCHF 1.1M GC 1 ES -3 @ 1293 Orders that got executed - 1. Bought 400k EURCHF @ 1.2105 (note in last post, had mistakingly mentioned buying 700k) 2. Bought 1 GC @ 1630 3. Sold 100k AUD @ 1.036 Even though ES sold off to a low of 1272 on the news of France downgrade by S&P, it came back and after 1 day touched 1300. Now it is trading at 1290.5, I am not comfortable with the short position here so I am squaring it off and waiting. Closing short AUD position also Trades doing now: 1. Buy 3 ES @ 1290.5 2. Buy 300k AUD @ 1.0375 3. Short 200k Euro @ 1.2745 Current Portfolio is: Euro -400k EURCHF 1.5 M GC 2 New orders: 1. Buy 200k Euro @ 1.255 2. Sell 500k EURCHF @ 1.22
ES had broken 1305 support which was a big support. Yesterday, ES witnessed selloff from 1317 on huge volume to 1305 but couldn't break it. So, I am going bearish on all risk assets and re-establishing short AUD position (around 100 pips higher than where I had closed my shorts) and shorting ES. I am also closing my long gold exposure, but will look to reenter it soon. Btw, Demark was on bbgTV on Friday, predicting S&P will top on Tuesday and today is Tuesday. I had sell orders for 200k Euro at 1.29 and 100k each at 1.295, 1.3, 1.305, 1.31, 1.315, 1.32 (So, a total of 800k in sell orders, and current position of 200k). The rally, maybe due to short squeeze caused the orders at 1.29, 1.295, 1.30, 1.305 get executed. New Trades doing now: 1. Sell 3 ES @ 1303 2. Sell 400k AUD @ 1.4042 3. Sell 2 GC @ 1663 So, current portfolio looks like 1. Euro -1.2 M 2. EURCHF 1.5 M 3. GC 0 4. ES -3 5. AUD -400k Orders: 1. Stop orders 3 ES @ 1314.5 2. Stop order 400k AUD @ 1.5035 3. Long Gold 1 @ 1635 4. Long Gold 1 @ 1620