At around 11 am pacific, I was all set to buy some july and august djx/spx calls into the close as the market collapsed 500 or 600 points. It was down 400 at that point, and I couldn't help but think of other major monday collapses (1987, 1998, 2000, etc). Then we got this questionable bounce off the sept 21st closing low from some buy programs, and now it looks questionable at best (NYSE advance/decline line not very inspiring after such a big rally). Who else was ready to buy this market if it had closed down 500+ points? I don't see how the DOW can escape the damage of the other averages and NOT close below the sept low.
I sympathize. And I agree that the bounce today was all about programs and I go one stop further and theorize that the fed working group is behind those programs. There are definitely powers out there that do not want to see a capitulation day. However, the result is just a crash in slow motion. At the lows of today we were down about a 1,000 dow pts in a week. The general public is like the frog in the pot and the heat is gradually being turned up. If we dropped some scalding hot water on the frogs ( not talking about the french, but they are taking their money back to europe ) they would jump out of the pot and then maybe we could get a bottom.
I didnt think we had a shot in hell of today being a capitulation day. All morning the Semi's were making New Highs and the Nasdaq was holding up nicely. This changed by the afternoon, but that does not change the morning Relative Strength, but by this time the bonds where saying that they did not believe equities to be that weak either, they in fact closed one TICK above the days low. All of these things should be screaming by. All this knowledge of course did very little to help me today as I continued to try to pick off the bottom this morning, and by afternoon I had made 6 trades and was down slightly after commissions. I got sick of fighting things and left, only to come back and see that what I was 90% positive was going to happen did in fact happen without me. Brandon
Anyone else tired about people complaining about not seeing a capitulation day yet? Or even people simply waiting for a capitulation day? Can you say capitulation ten times fast?
I am not tired..it is fairly simple todays bounce was on schedule (just look at weekly chgarts for DOW) ..this is not a bottom, but a correction we will go perhaps to 9500 or less on Dow and will make a new low - PKJR The game is over when the cheerleaders go home...
Geez. Today on MSNBC, they were all sayin' all these Wall St strategists(i.e. jokers like Abby Cohen from GS and that other guy from Prud etc.) all calling dow 12000! geez. no capitulation yet?? maybe this is not a classic bear market? But I'm always wary when people say it's different this time around... hehe
I could be wrong, but yeah, this would have made sense if we didn't get such a huge bounce (IMHO). Now I admit my somewhat addled brain ain't what it used to be, but if I am not mistaken, the Tuesday after the '87 crash was the biggest percentage up day ever. Is this correct? That is how I remember it anyway. Anyone have accurate numbers on this?
all it was was the buying of sp futures contracts by huge institutions to cover their shorts in stocks