True, you are correct. It is also 38% off it's low from 2 months ago so it is closer to it's all time high. It was priced for perfection at pre-crisis revenue. I feel the company is bloated and doesn't deserve it's current valuation. Will it drift higher? I really hope so as it will be easier to short at 120 130 140 etc.... I also hope that I am wrong and it doesn't go as low as I suspect. I used to be a big fan of Disney and held it in my long term port until it was taken from me in 2015. I never got back in as a long term holder as I felt there were better investments for my long term port. With that said it can be a good trade and this will be my first short on Disney. I'll likely get stopped out a few times.
Disney has done a great job diversifying so revenue hits from the parks closing is the big reason it went from $140 to $85 or so. That is what is priced in. However going out for the next 12 months we expect to see the return of ESPN and ABC, as well as the other channels they own. Summer means movies and there will be more releases to feed into revenues and merchandise sales. Disney+ has been somewhat successful so far so not a major revenue jump but still keeping them in the game. When the parks open up in the next 3 months it will be the boost they need to overcome a lot of sideways movement in the $95 to $110 ranges. DIS is not a quick trade but a 1 year play and $90 will look really cheap (my avg cost is $96 adding in at different prices. If it gets back to that level I will keep adding. I expect DIS to be hitting $140 by this time next year when the parks have been open for many months and the next MARVEL/LUCAS/PIXAR releases will be hitting the movies.
I disagree that Disney's losses are even remotely priced in but that is not what the market cares about right now. It is likely too early to short but I think they have serious headwinds. If it runs above 110 next week I will exit and wait. Its just a trade and might not be my best.
Disney acting more resilient than the market. I took my short off... better opportunities out there. You have a better understanding than I do of the likely ranges in play.
I expect a lot of sideways chop from here on out between current ranges so a short may be risky since it might just bounce around and randomly spike. SUmmer will not give it any more fuel out of the $109 high unilt it opens more parks and people can go to the movies so stay tuned...