Guy asks for 1 simple example,and not one of the Mega Elite Traders can share one golden nugget??? Things that make you go hmmmmm..
%% I found @ least 2 examples\ in last 2 pages of this\ someone noted 30 minutes; + 1 oz of lead in a 12 gauge has 585 pellets+ no one uses just one shot for migratory birds. SPY has 500 or 505. IF that makes no sense; OK. Even if you have a better than 20% hit rate on migratory birds; that wont change the average by much. The metals dealer, she said she had not bought much gold this year; they do brass , barge size loads of steel +copper, cash. Not a prediction or a gamble.
Yield Curve Index VWAP Index Vol Constituent Vol Index Differentials (spread market) But really, it's about liquidity. If a large move has occurred, or is setting up, that's where you will see many traps, backfill, reversals, spikes, counter trend moves, etc. You need to know who is trapped, who is being forced to pay-up on losers, and who is in control. The index trades around the liquidity, which is based on the open and close of each exchange, and when the cash trading sessions overlap. The CBOT and cash treasury market (and foreign) trades in parallel. The Asian session is a thing, and the EU and UK session overlap into the NYSE open is peak liquidity. A lot is happening off-exchange (OTC), in dark pools, and in the basis trades (index basis). For example, when the Nikkei is trading on TSE, OSE and SGX during the ASX, HKEX and Shanghai sessions, that represents a lot of liquidity.
%% And adding to a loser made a bit more sense when/ when commissions were much\ much higher; because that was one of the few things a trader /investor could completely control. Some one @ Don Bright Daytrading could have made money on averaging in on GM\ but GM went bankrupt so, have to keep possibilities like that in mind .......................... As you hinted/ maybe some times when reversal is highly likely.