direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by nukethewhales31, Dec 31, 2008.

  1. Specterx

    Specterx

    NTW, like Steve I'm not sure how you arrived at your numbers.

    The labels suggest that the first number is the length of the bar's short end, and the second number is the length of the long end. In that case the LSD is 30.4 (occurs on bar 2) and the SLD is 20 (occurs on bar 14).

    How did you get 7 and 14?
     
    #51     Jan 6, 2009
  2. k lets see # 21 is 21 bars back so its the furthest away from current price.... note that a couple of the bars had two long distance prices and no short... its not the max of the shorts its the longest short distance and shortest longest distance ... lol now that i think about it that sounds confusing... its not max of short side but maximum distance from open where distance from open was shorter then the opposing distance from open on the other side...
     
    #52     Jan 6, 2009
  3. short side not direction... from open length wise.
     
    #53     Jan 6, 2009
  4. LSD- longest shortest distance cant be longer than the shortest longest distance in my table that is all mushed together 30.4 on bar 2 is not in bar2's line signifying i used it as another long side not a short side distance...

    and on bar 4 it shows 14 marked as long side as well as its an outlier... i wish i knew how to draw clearer table on here ill start attaching excels. so that makes sld=14 and lsd = 7 as both lsd outliers 8.5 and 10 extremes.

    i hope that helps. ill post excels to help.
     
    #54     Jan 6, 2009
  5. Why isn't the LSD going by bar18 -> 8.3 or if by bar6 -> 10? How do you compute MDRR and %tile accuracy? You're excluding outliers? So you are filtering the distribution? How are you computing these numbers? Manually through Excel?

    Sorry to say this is currently in the realm of Jack Hershey opacity.
     
    #55     Jan 6, 2009
  6. looking at next 3 hour candle

    N= 21
    entrance = 35
    tp = 65
    stop =35
     
    #56     Jan 6, 2009
  7. setup new candle
     
    #57     Jan 6, 2009

  8. note im trying be as clear as possible what seems clear to me may not seem clear to you ask questions and i will explain im not jack hershey not sure why i keep getting called that...

    thanks for asking this question as it is important.

    why isnt the lsd going by bar 18 -> 8.3 or bar 6 -> 10 ...
    these are extremes to the short side seen outside the area of reasonable movement exhibited by the sample or the population of movements. so much of the movements fall from 7 and below that 8.3 and 10 can be seen as anomalies or statistical outliers.... extremes in some cases....

    MDRR i calculate as the bar im trading if im given
    with
    n=21

    entrance = 40
    TP = 60
    SL = open
    then i risk 40
    for 60-40 =20 reward
    40:20 or 2:1
    MDRR= 2:1
    those numbers are made up but it gives you idea how i calc that.

    % accuracy is over the N amount of bars 21
    if we had used these parameters we would have successfully traded that % amount of bars giving the next bar that statistical % accuracy if we use the same parameters until recalculated.

    yes im filtering distribution... filtering the distribution is not bad... your isolating anomalies ... extremities out of the picture giving you more trading ability.

    your basically knocking off the 2.5% tails on both ends of the bell curve if you know what im describing your jsut taking the outside rare occurance zones away.

    how do i calculate these numbers... im guessing you mean on the fly so i have time to use them.. if im using short time frames yes i wrote indicators in mt4 to do the calculations for me... one that shows me bias... one that plots the stats my tp sl entrance points and probabilities... if im using stuff like the 3 hr i do it in a excel sheet ....
     
    #58     Jan 6, 2009
  9. were not lookin so hot on this one approaching my stop

    saw a bunch of bullish block trades come in and own me within 9 pips of my stop loss.

    well see where it goes.
     
    #59     Jan 6, 2009
  10. hit my SL


    note if you change time frames remember if your going for more movement reduce your position size.

    hourly matches 3 hourly distance to tp = same profit as distance to TP on hourly
     
    #60     Jan 6, 2009