direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by nukethewhales31, Dec 31, 2008.

  1. so lets look at the current eur/usd chart

    bar short long
    21 .5 36
    20 3.3 64
    19 5.6 25
    18 8.3 36
    17 .4 54
    16 3.1 22
    15 3.1 33
    14 1.6 20
    13 83
    14.5

    12 .1 56.5
    11 4.3 39.2
    10 90
    28.6
    9 2 70
    8 7 69
    7 0 66
    6 10 54
    5 30
    28.6
    4 67
    14
    3 .4 51
    2 59
    30.4
    1 1.3 74

    LSD= 7 DFO
    SLD = 14 DFO
    n = 21 bars

    entrance= 8 DFO
    stop = open
    take prof = 14 DFO
    MDRR= 4:3
    %tile accurate = 19/21 or 90.48%
    POT= N trades 114
    LOT= N trades 16
    NPOT=N trades 98

    LSD= longest shortest distance
    SLD=Shortest Longest distance
    N= period of calc bars
    MDRR= market defined risk reward
    POT=Profit over term
    LOT= loss over term
    NPOT= Net POT

    next bars trade
    open +8 entrance
    open + 14 TP
    open stop
    expected success rate = 90.48%
     
    #41     Jan 6, 2009
  2. open to questions...
     
    #42     Jan 6, 2009
  3. Nice work. Thank you for sharing.
     
    #43     Jan 6, 2009
  4. 3 HR EUR/$

    can be modified for other time frames...
     
    #44     Jan 6, 2009
  5. what did i not do right...

    what protective measure did i not take even tho the trade is going well....
     
    #45     Jan 6, 2009
  6. making newer higher highs
     
    #46     Jan 6, 2009
  7. 2 pips from TP

    edite: profit hit blew past by a 1.5 pips
     
    #47     Jan 6, 2009
  8. traded both ways and when trade was initiated it was against bias.. tho i liked this trade as it was still high Prob.
    didnt trade with the bias...

    you can trade against the bias just look for your stops to be further and your Take profits to be closer. this will skew MDRR against making the trade MOST OF THE TIMe not all the time...

    +54(1500)for the day

    had one hourly candle hit a stop but you cant win em all cya for the day
     
    #48     Jan 6, 2009
  9. Let me make sure I understand what that data table was a few posts back.

    The first line in the table labeled #21 is the most recent bar in time?

    The other 2 numbers after each bar # are (open price - low price) and (high price - open price)?

    I imported your data into Excel and tried to duplicate your summary numbers such as LSD and SLD and got different results. The SLD agreed (the MIN of the longs?), but the LSD (the MAX of the shorts?) was 90.

    The data formatting was a little funny and my "fixes" may have broken the data.
     
    #49     Jan 6, 2009
  10. jetbird

    jetbird

    I'm a little confused. What do you mean by "short" and "long" side? The side of the short wick, or short direction?

    thanks
     
    #50     Jan 6, 2009