so as the run happens .... and the bars flow... the per candle reversal chance is higher... where is the raw edge? what would a trigger be? and how could this raw edge be used... any ideas?
look at this last change in direction notice the candles. made 40pips off of this what is the trigger
no one said anything ... sooooooo.... this picture the direction is down 4 candles r in row up at the resistance point/retracement intersection.. we find the best precise entrance. we go short at the resistance exactly place stop at failure to hold 20 pips establish a target to exit 1/2 the position. this makes risk=reward stop to breakeven allows u to extract the profit from the pending downward movement risk free. unlimited profit Vr. limited risk.. the force of the initial movement down provides best entry... so trigger was resis. point. optimal entry power for the movement down was there take the pop and now let it ride.
So what you did was combine "normal" TA (a trend channel) plus a statistical study of up and down bars. The trendline coincided with a high probability reversal based on up-down bar statistical analysis. Is this correct?
Re your 4/21 post, I'm assuming you were short from the 128.00 area. You asked what was the trigger - I would say a wick less than or equal to the previous candle. Or were you saying you had a limit sell order at the high of the previous candle? With that approach you're either blown out quick in a breakout or you profit quickly with the retrace - I like it - Thanks for your posts, I'm counting candles & looking at wicks trying to understand the process
statistics will give u a tendency of action... when an occurrence happens but you still need a reason for that action to occur in trading.. multiple candles in a direction the more the better at a trigger point some recognizable S&R area with the direction of the trade being in direction of the bias.. is the system. if there is no news... you are 5+ candles of the same color deep against a support or resistance.. the initial pop will get you in the trade.. the bias will carry u till it shows exit. the TA will give you the trigger in this case ... the stat study will give u a better trade.. if u use only these setups ur trading will be more accurate. you can use pivot points.... fibs.... other S&r points but they would be the trigger the candles are the warning the stops wwill get you out of volatile situations where maybe it was news u didnt know.. its also an understanding of people... thought "damn we are like 6 hours up in a direction counter trend and this is a strong resistance area i think ill get out here and keep these profits." so you got warning ur 4-6candles in a row counter "trend" at a resistance area... take the trade. your stops vary on the trigger.. if its a trendline or normal s&r risk enough to prove the move is a failure that the bias changed.. all pairs are different 20-35 pips on E/j is failure usually. other pairs you can normalize price movement past that point on these trades to find a % area to place the stop usually a good spot is 7-15% of previous leg depending on how aggressive u r... if your 7% let your profit distance be a bit further then if u are 15% ratio wise. i use to do this a psych zones.. all the 00's.. solid s&r works better tho. i think i sorta mentioned this before