direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by nukethewhales31, Dec 31, 2008.

  1. i really like that pic as well look at is shows that a crazy amount of the time the bars lean majorly in one direction or the other from open.
     
    #151     Jan 13, 2009
  2. update: this is probably cause we are nearing statistical weekly movement for the week which seems to be where the blue pivot point line is placed oddly enough.

    because of this i will be tightening my stop in two bars or so.
     
    #152     Jan 13, 2009
  3. chart for what i said above

    also reaching 75 psych level

    edit: also note how our statistical entrance/support red dash line is also a century mark resistance point.

    are we starting to see what happens when stat+Lines+psych areas+pivot point areas occur on top of each other

    ive noticed that many of the stats that i develop then to do this...

    ill take this opportunity to say that no matter what you trade it will work but exp traders like stacking probabilities the higher the prob the better we dont trade everyline we see or prepare for everyline we see... we pick only the highest probs.
     
    #153     Jan 13, 2009
  4. as i cant see how you got the numbers in the sheet cause its a picture not the excel i can only tell you it LOOKS correct.

    It is a Sierra chart worksheets they are excel compatible but I can't seem to save it in an xls format to upload.

    Just to clarify a couple of points

    1. I plotted the SD and LD columns by hand

    What function would you write to compare each distance and automatically put in the SD and LD columns?

    any LSD that was > than SLD was moved over to SLD side?

    Am I suppose to do that?

    2. For the LSD and SLD I eyeballed the two best numbers ignoring outliers

    Glad you like the chart!
     
    #154     Jan 13, 2009
  5. psych levels look how the statistical white dash is jsut above the upper 25 lvl
     
    #155     Jan 13, 2009
  6. thats cool if you can save as something else and zip it im a mac user so i use oOo dev i can open it.
    just probably no one else lol.
    i barely passed my financial excel class at psu im not sure maybe someone on et will post how to i just watch LSD =max() area and do it by hand until its underneath sld sometimes its a chore.
    hum make sure you filter the data like that(moving the LSD to SLD side) even if the difference is 1 pip between the two... not eye ball because in the next step you need to define your accuracy under 100% and then remove outliers and failures and thats what will give you some distance in pips between the two.
     
    #156     Jan 13, 2009
  7. breaks coming soon... alot of hesitation is growing
    other than being a psych level and holding a couple times this 75 psych level doesnt have much going for it so itd be a easier break than the century mark and with all the higher time frame bias being in our favor....

    id really like this to go ahead and break tho as i wanna tighten my stop so i can go get a cheese burger.
     
    #157     Jan 13, 2009
  8. ________________________________________________
    thats cool if you can save as something else and zip it im a mac user so i use oOo dev i can open it.
    just probably no one else lol.
    __________________________________________________

    I will try to figure out how to do that.

    ____________________

    So far here are the initial steps as I see them, am I correct?

    Measure 1: distance from the OPEN to the HIGH (H-L)

    Measure 2: distance from the OPEN to the LOW (O-L)

    Compare the size of each distance measurement (one will be greater then or less then the other)

    Take the shorter of the two measures and put that number in the SD (shortest distance) cell

    Take the longer of the two measures and put that number in the LD (longest distance) cell

    We now have a:

    1. SD (shortest distance column)
    2. LD (longest distance column)

    Next step:

    Take any distance in the SD (shortest distance column) that was greater than any distance in the LD (longest distance column) and move that number over to the LD (longest distance column)

    Then:

    In the SD (shortest distance column) take the largest number over the last 20 bars

    In the LD (longest distance column) take the smallest number over the last 20 bars

    These 2 numbers will be used to compile the nest part of the method.
     
    #158     Jan 13, 2009
  9. correct
     
    #159     Jan 13, 2009
  10. statistically calling BULL SHIT on break out. well see tho im watching closely

    come on market 8 pips on the break out we both know as of right now its false.

    i did adjust my stop tho
     
    #160     Jan 13, 2009