direct statistical trading a "clearly" defined approach by NTW31

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by nukethewhales31, Dec 31, 2008.

  1. sweet ill be here if you need anything keep me informed how everything is working out for you.
     
    #141     Jan 12, 2009
  2. more for pictures....

    note how the weekly pivot point lines support 2 line is the same as the go line for the 3hr statistical bar formation short go line and the weekly pivot point lines s1+s2/2 median line is the statistical go line for the 3hr long bar formation.

    odd huh

    bias is down; 90% chance that what resistance/support line price hits will be broken?

    "quote" investopedia

    The results since the inception of the euro (January 1, 1999, with the first trading day on January 4, 1999):
    The actual low is, on average, 1 pip below Support 1
    The actual high is, on average, 1 pip below Resistance 1
    The actual low is, on average, 53 pips above Support 2
    The actual high is, on average, 53 pips below Resistance 2
    The actual low is, on average, 158 pips above Support 3
    The actual high is, on average, 159 pips below Resistance 3

    also

    The result: there have been 2,026 trading days since the inception of the euro as of October 12, 2006.
    The actual low has been lower than S1 892 times, or 44% of the time
    The actual high has been higher than R1 853 times, or 42% of the time
    The actual low has been lower than S2 342 times, or 17% of the time
    The actual high has been higher than R2 354 times, or 17% of the time
    The actual low has been lower than S3 63 times, or 3% of the time
    The actual high has been higher than R3 52 times, or 3% of the time
     
    #142     Jan 12, 2009
  3. heres how it unraveled...

    no smoke and mirrors here was setup for this trade an hour and 10 min ago.
     
    #143     Jan 13, 2009
  4. closed quickly for a nice 32.5 pip gain

    i like how the 3hr bar formation statistics will give you probability of continuation past the break area... which was s2 pivot line....
     
    #144     Jan 13, 2009
  5. Trader pivot points for the week on the on the 15 min with statistically designed stop/tp/and entrance

    red dash - statistical buy
    white top dash - breakout statistical stop
    white bottom dash- breakout statistical TP

    red line is 1/4 M pivot as well as statistical entry making this high prob.

    Blue lines pivot points.
     
    #145     Jan 13, 2009
  6. Hey NTW,

    Really enjoying your thread!

    I am trying to duplicate what you do and have several questions.

    If it is ok with you; I will go step- by- step though the method to ensure I am going about this correctly

    Using the180m EURUSD chart the first thing I did was take two measures.

    Step 1

    Measure 1: distance from the OPEN to the HIGH (H-L)

    Measure 2: distance from the OPEN to the LOW (O-L)

    These measures were done with a "bar difference study" in my chart software package and I have included the chart.

    *Note you can see the 2 studies on the bottom of the chart and a 20 MA plotted with the 180m bars

    Next a spreadsheet is used to capture the information

    The spreadsheet now shows the "distances" of the 2 measurements for every 180m bar

    Step 2

    Compare the size of each distance measurement (one will be greater then or less then the other)

    Take the shorter of the two measures and put that number in the SD (shortest distance) cell

    Take the longer of the two measures and put that number in the LD (longest distance) cell

    Step 3

    Now that you have a series of data 20 or more take the following two data points:

    In the SD (shortest distance column) take the largest number over the last 20 bars
    In the LD (longest distance column) take the smallest number over the last 20 bars

    These 2 numbers will be used to compile the nest part of the method.

    This is what I understand so far and just wanted to confirm if I am doing this correctly!
     
    #146     Jan 13, 2009
  7. Here is the pics
     
    #147     Jan 13, 2009
  8. hell of a struggle going on at that statistical line that falls on a pivot line and intersecting a trend line.
     
    #148     Jan 13, 2009
  9. spreadsheet
     
    #149     Jan 13, 2009
  10. as i cant see how you got the numbers in the sheet cause its a picture not the excel i can only tell you it LOOKS correct.

    any LSD that was > than SLD was moved over to SLD side?
     
    #150     Jan 13, 2009