Different triple MAs?

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by dac8555, Dec 9, 2005.

  1. dac8555


    here is a strange on for you.

    I am trying to come up with some new methods to trade ETFs.

    What i have figured out is that based on different volatility profiles, different ETFs trend in different ways......we knew this.

    my system is to use a triple moving averge crossover signal.

    here is that catch, i have figured out with back testing that differerent ETF.s will be profitable (or un profitable) by using signals that are generate by different Moving averages.

    for example...on OIH, i may use a 10, 15, 30 day moving average crossover signal

    but, on QQQQ, a shorter moving average is profitable while a longer one is unprofitable.

    has anyone else done this? or even heard of this?

    I think most people (like the turtles) use just one system for every security, but i am using slightly different systems depending on the volatility of the security.
  2. Triple moving average crossover, is that for intraday trading? You do know that you're going to whipsawed to death by just using MAs and not having some other trigger.

    Or maybe you can have it set up as a triple screen system where you try to be along with the moving averages on 3 different time frames etc. 3 screens with 3 different MAs, now we're talking.
  3. dac8555


    The idea is that the optimal time frame seems to change per security. the QQQQ is has a much shorter optimal time frame for example...but if i use the same time frame for the Japan I shares...i lose my A$$...i have to go to a much longer time frame.

    I played with SPY, and simply couldnt find a time frame that was profitable for triple MA.

    I am thinking of another trigger to avoid the "whipshaw". what do you suggest?

  4. If you want to find out quickly, put some money on it and try it out.
    Nobody here can help you better than this

  5. I like to keep things as simple as possible..

    Is there a reason why you want to trade different ETF's?

    Have you considered trading just one?

    It could save you a whole lot of work and confusion about which MA's to use.

    Pick one ETF with one set of signals and trade it hard, imho.

  6. cnms2


    dac8555, be careful! This advice is a nonsense.
  7. The fact that you have to use different settings depending on the item you trade leads to the following conclusion:

    3MA's are worthless because you have to optimize them to get returns. Take another period for the same item and you will have to optimize again. You will always be running behind the facts and always be too late.

    MA's are only valid in the long run and to take parts of the big trending moves. They are not very efficient.
  8. dac8555


    maybe i didnt make myself clear. the system is not complete yet. it uses moving averages for trending...but i need something else to compliment it.

    maybe a stop (or entry) using a point above or below the previos days high or low?
  9. dac8555


    great question. The last few months i have been trading only one sector unprofitably. I think it is vital to have several small bets in unrelated sectors to take advantage of different moves for different reasons.

    If i am down in one sector, i want to be able to compensate with an unrelated trade.

  10. None of that stuff works. Neither do ma's, double ma's, triple ma's, quadruple ma's. You need something more unique.

    On second thought, the problem is not your system so much as *where* you apply it and 95% of ETF's aren't the place for ma systems.

    #10     Dec 9, 2005