lol - I tend to get a mixed reaction from the username, with vegetarians usually protesting You've hit the nail on the head with regards to process, I never really made that connection myself. I do feel that retail traders don't intentionally ignore the importance of process, but they certainly aren't made aware of it's importance from the get-go. However I'd imagine in the corporate world of trading this would be shoved down your throat in each pre-open market meeting.
Yep here we go again. If there was a lottery in action with a chance if winning 1:1m I would not predict a win. If there was a lottery in action with a chance if winning 1:100 I would not predict a win. If there was a lottery in action with a chance if winning 1:1 I would predict a win but trading is not 1:1. If there is a trade with a chance of winning with unknown odds' I would not predict a win. In actual fact atm my win rate is about 1:2 in a bull market. Even when holding for several days or longer my win rate remains 1:2 however it's because I sell losers so my loss rate can remain high, once sold a loss is forever a loss on my ledger. When I place a trade I never predict, like a shotgun one pellet may hit the target, the others are just collateral which is lost in order to make an indescriminate gain by the unknown winner. That's why trading is not about predicting, well it never is for me. When I trade I don't expect a win and when I have a loss I am not surprised nor dissapointed.
every trade is done based on some kind of 'prediction', otherwise it will be just random entry/exit; good traders use good methods.
YES!!! Decent success rates (40-60%) have higher long-term avg reward to risk ratios. High winning pcts in the long term have 1:1 reward to risk ratios or worse (starting at 70%+).
Perfect! MORE Perfect!! Why not, "All of the Above"?? As an options seller, I did not have to have the market's behavior nailed down for the hour or the day, but within a range for the week. As a trend/momentum trader, I only need to spec what defines as a solid trend, and then to jump ship at the first hint of aberrant behavior. Accuracy is still *good*, but I'm not *dependent* on it. I'm trying to map the tides, not the individual waves.
"Really. RRRRRRReally." And I suppose you just randomly aim the barrel before you pull the trigger? Sheeesh.