newbie - he tries to predict the market successful trader - he has already given up predicting the market newbie - he aims for higher accuracy successful trader - he aims for mediocre accuracy
Sorry, but I completely disagree. Professional/Institutional/Hedge fund traders rely on predictive models of one type or another based on some type of data set. That data set can be anything. Their job is to predict what the markets will do and how that stock or basket will react.
Absolutely, I think the point he was trying to perhaps make was that retail traders who start out try and aim for perfection (because that's the BS dream which they have been sold, as usual)....the experienced retail traders tend to bring a pinch of reality to the party and get that it's not always about aiming for this elusive goal!
First I want to tell you how upsetting your member name is to me as now all I can think about at 5am is having a Bacon Sandwich! IMO, after being in this business since 1981, the difference between a successful trader-retail or otherwise-is process. They focus on having a process in place to allocate toward a strategy that works. They have a process to avoid what does not work and a process to manage risk. They have a set of rules and use them. Traders that lose money, month after month do not seem to stop doing the same thing day after day that does not work. After one trader a few years ago called me to say, I'm not sure why I keep losing money. I suggested he try one "opposite day". No matter what his instinct tells him to do, do the opposite for one day. He made money that day, He then realized what he was doing was not valid and need to do something else. Bob
Ah, this particular trope again. The second pair of statements is true. The first is not. When you place a trade, you are by definition making an implicit prediction of what the market will do.