You know, everyone speaks about hindsight. But this one was a humdinger. I remember about a year ago some big storm came through the Gulf of Mexico, and noticed how RB prices jumped. I was not following RB at that time on the charts, just a passing interest. But this year Harvey totally screwed the refineries, right near the expiration of the Sep RB contract. CL dropped, surprisingly, but logically. And so what do we get from the news of Harvey hitting TX on Friday until today, the day of expiration for Sep RB? Ohh, I dunno', about a 5000 tick move up. That's $21,000 per contract. Here's a chart to show... Talk about a lament on not getting in when I had a feeling there would be problems in the energy sector with this storm. Granted, I would not have captured the whole move, but could have gotten chunks if I trusted my instincts. This is depressing, but a lesson learned. Technicals could not have helped me here. This was truly a fundamental move. If a major storm is going to hit refineries, pay attention to refined products! Bah.
Well... Its a fine time to refine.... for next time down the line. Care to opine? You heard mine. OK to bitch... Just don't whine. You saw the light... ... now seek the sign.
Sometimes we are so engrossed in our charts we miss the painfully obvious. Fundamentals, if strong enough, will always, ALWAYS trump levels of support or resistance. I have found that while charts can help one capture small moves, the big moves, the huge moves, are always fundamental in nature. So obvious we miss it time and again. Of course some news is unknowable until after the event, then there is the one that comes in screaming for those that can tear themselves away from the screen for a minute or two.
same goes for Heating Oil. Well. have to look for other opportunities. anyway, problem with RB is that the spread is very wide, and volume is not that great compare with most other trading instruments.
Volume volume volume. What is wrong with you folks? The spread between bid and ask is what, 5-6 ticks? And what the hell is wrong with low volume on a 1 or 2 contract trade? I am getting fed up with people who bang on about low volume, but not actually trade those market months, and so have no idea what they are on about.