Did Niederhoffer Lie To Baron?

Discussion in 'Chit Chat' started by Pa(b)st Prime, Sep 26, 2007.

  1. I always believed you! The fact that the thread was deleted by the overzealous, did not sully the veracity given the source. Excellent work!
    #51     Sep 28, 2007
  2. gaj


    if he's proven right, will you apologize for this insulting remark?
    #52     Sep 28, 2007
  3. Babak


    totally agree, I haven't yet changed anything or taken down anything on my blog.

    Is the WSJ going fwd? Can you provide any more info?
    #53     Sep 28, 2007
  4. No. The OP's postings have been balanced by and large though I think the interest in Niederhoffer's misfortune strikes me as odd.

    Most other contributions have been childish and ammount to grandstanding.
    #54     Sep 28, 2007
  5. nravo


    Still haven't see a word in the WSJ, FT, Bloomberg -- even the NYT -- on surely what would be an obvious story. And knowing these guys and how fast they turn around copy on more arcane and obscure hedge fund blow ups, I can't imagine they are somehow stymied on reporting on this one -- if there is indeed a blow up.
    #55     Sep 28, 2007
  6. Can someone post a link to the aug 2008 puts. I only see June and September being traded on SPX.
    #56     Sep 28, 2007
  7. Here's my take nravo. I understand that Vic was basically seeded by Octane, a "fund of funds" operating out of Switzerland. Probably no one is reporting until the new quarter commencing next week.

    I'm sure the press knows the story but getting folks from Octane or Vic's camp on the record-with specifics that perhaps haven't even been available to clients-must be difficult.
    #57     Sep 28, 2007
  8. nravo


    You think that is difficult for a WSJ reporter, or the FT, e tl? LOL. It's a piece of cake. Maybe they couldn't do that on an overnight deadline. But after, what a month, they would be fired if they couldn't nail this story a day or two.
    #58     Sep 28, 2007
  9. Pekelo


    I bet that is not what happened.

    My bet is that the investors simply withdrew the money because they lost confidence in Vic's abilities and simply couldn't stomach the fluctuation.

    Imagine that after 4 months you are up 30%, and one month later you are in the red. Maybe individuals can stand it, but a fund of funds wouldn't go for such a performance.

    Now that is another question where the performance was, when the withdrawals occured. They might have lost like 10% or they got out at breakeven, we shall know.

    By the way analyzing his performance, his simplified portfolio is equivalent to be long of ES futures with 1:5 leverage. So had he been able to hold his position until the end of the year, he would have made 60+%...
    (This is just speculation on a speculator)

    According to his website, he didn't close in the red in 2006. I am not sure though how they calculate performance, when the AUM fluctuates so wildly....
    #59     Sep 28, 2007
  10. Niederhoffer lost 30% in May/06 on an SPX decline of 80pts. What effect do you think an Index break of 180 points had on his positions?
    #60     Sep 28, 2007