Did my first 100 lot today

J-Law · Aug 21, 2009

I love it how many people on this board would knock a guy for trying to grow....stretch. With risk.....there is reward.
Way to go, Cutten. You will prosper in time & will look back on this one day and smile as you are doing multiple 100 lots.

Regards,

J-Law

moo · Sep 5, 2009

Thanks for a very interesting trading story, a great read!
Wonder how many lots are you trading nowadays.

Thunderdog · Sep 5, 2009

Quote from Trend Following:

Yeah, yeah...like a broken record. You have some one gripe with Cato which therefore invalidates all that is Cato and makes your position right...whatever obscure point it is that you are arguing about! Can't fight that logic!
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You forgot so quickly? Allow me to refresh your memory, Michael:

http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2294160#post2294160

Cato's willingness to participate in obscuring the link between tobacco and cancer, and all the implications that such a willingness raises about integrity and other minor details.

But, hey, you should be pleased. I included your Turtle Trader book in my last Amazon book order, and it is next on my reading list after I finish what I'm reading now. I hope it will be an entertaining read and better than Trend Following.

Trend Following · Sep 5, 2009

Quote from Thunderdog:

Cato's willingness to participate in obscuring the link between tobacco and cancer, and all the implications that such a willingness raises about integrity and other minor details.
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If I go by this logic than because some one guy under Obama was a 9/11 conspiracy backer everyone under Obama including Obama also thought Bush caused 9/11?

And since you mention the Turtles, you should read Richard Dennis' piece (written for Cato; he is on board) about the legalization of marijuana. That is invalidated by the point you are making? And I have no clue whether your point is accurate or not.

Thunderdog · Sep 5, 2009

Quote from Trend Following:

If I go by this logic than because some one guy under Obama was a 9/11 conspiracy backer everyone under Obama including Obama also thought Bush caused 9/11?
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Poor logic. Bad analogy. It wasn't an individual who tried to blur the connection between smoking and cancer, and who then later joined Cato. Rather, it was Cato itself, in all its splendor, that tried to obscure the truth. I'm surprised by your apparent lack of grasp.

Quote from Trend Following:

...I have no clue...
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Who am I to argue?

(I presented links elsewhere during the course of our earlier exchanges. However, as an author, I'm sure you're capable of doing your own investigative research. Starting with Google, perhaps? Just think how much less clue-free you'll be then.)

rsi80 · Apr 10, 2011

Seven years on, this post remains an inspirational ET classic.

Would Ghost of Cutten be interested in providing an update on how to trade size?

Quote from Cutten:

For a long time I have wanted to do a 100 lot clip in the Bund, T-bonds, ES, or some other "serious" futures contract, but I was always intimidated by the risk. Finally today I manage to do it, so I thought I'd give a brief account for anyone who is interested - maybe it will help them step up their size too.

Normally I trade 20 lots in the Bund, and have not gone bigger than 40. However, a while ago I read a superb (IMO) post by AMT4SWA about the psychology of stepping up to bigger size:

http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=384872&highlight=blow+wire+fear#post384872

After reading that, I decided that if I saw what looked like a really great trade, where I had big conviction, that rather than scale up a bit bigger, I would say to hell with the risk and do my first 100 lot trade.

It was then a matter of waiting for it. One pattern I like in the Bund/Bobl is where the market has been chopping back and forth a bit above its lows for a while, and then the Bund comes back down near the lows, and yet at the same time the Bobl is much further away from its lows. If the Bund then just sits there with no real selling for a few minutes, then the pattern is set up.

So, when today I saw the pattern, I thought ok, I have to try it now or never. I took a deep breath and then bid for a 100 lot at a price of 114.93 (this was done around 13:05-10 CET, so you can check the setup on the charts). I got filled a bit at a time - there was no backing out now.

I was ready to get out if 90s started trading. My target was 98, just below the previous high. The market then traded out and went 93 offered, and 92s traded and looked like they might trade out. I got the feeling that I should exit to save a couple of ticks, as it looked like the market was going to go against me, but I was determined to wait for my stop or my profit target to get hit. Until then I would sit on my hands.

The market then started to tick up, and the 3s traded out, then it quickly went 4 bid, then 5s started trading and it went 95 bid on size. I got a bit light-headed - it looked like my first 100 lot might work perfectly! My plan was to offer out most of my position just below the previous high, which was 98/99. To be on the safe side I had orders to sell 40 at 97 and 40 at 98. I planned to keep the other 20 and run them, or stop out at breakeven if the market went back to 93 and looked like going 3 offered.

After trading 95/96 for several minutes, the market then made a second move, the sixes traded out and went bid on size. Normally this would be routine for me, but with this size on I was reacting differently, much less detached than normal. The market looked strong and suddenly I succumbed to the lure of trader's greed - I pulled my 40 at 97, seeing visions of the market breaking out and retesting the days highs 15 ticks higher. I would exit 40 at 98 then run the other 60 for a 15+ tick winner. Suddenly the market spiked up through 98s, as though someone were covering shorts in a bit of a panic, and the 99s traded. I got even more bullish.

Then the 8s traded out again, and it was 97/98. Suddenly I realised that might have been a short term top - classic panic covering, right at the level of the previous high, and looking bullish just before it pulled back. I offered 98s, but the 97 bid eventually traded out, and I missed my chance of a fill. The market then ranged between 94 and 97 (with small size at 93 and 98 briefly) for the next 40-odd minutes, getting tantalisingly close to my desired 98 fill price, but I stubbornly refused to accept 97s. Finally the 93s started trading as the US T-bonds opened, and I stopped myself out at breakeven.

Despite this, I was pleased that I had finally done my first big trade in that market. I had finally fulfilled my ambition to trade a 100 lot, win or lose! My entry and first exit was good, but then I let first greed and then stubborness get in the way of what would have been a near-perfect trade. Still, I had made a nice profit, and it was better than losing.

So, my advice to anyone who wants to step up their size is this - wait for a really good setup, then get in on 5 times the size you a comfortable with. Then set your profit target and leave well alone! Avoid the "coulda, woulda, shoulda" and stick with your plan. Good luck
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Did my first 100 lot today

J-Law

moo

Thunderdog

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Thunderdog

rsi80