And maybe that is why 98 % of retail traders lose. They just do ! ( I've always been curious where he ranks himself )
let's be nice here please. i want to keep this thread clean. as long as bone provides some useful info from his two decades of experience he is entitled to throw in a few ads. i think that's fair.
Well, since I transitioned from HF to swing trading a few years ago my original thought was that I would need something else to do with the time and energy normally spent staring at the screen and engaged in a white-knuckle ride. There was also the assumption at that time that my trading income would fall off and that the client fees would partially compensate. I was correct regarding clients taking up the time and focus element, I am pleasantly surprised (shocked actually) at the net results for the differential between HF and swing trading. Net loser is clearly Nymex, ICE, Eurex, Liffe, and the FCMs.
Oh, I think he has a point. I am taking fewer clients than I used to because the net P&L on the swing trading versus the HF approach has frankly shocked me a bit. The clients I am taking on tend to more experienced and accomplished and less of a pain-in-the-ass for me. The other aspect is that I want to have access to trading talent that I am familiar with in terms of performance and game for a future endeavor.
I'm long. I have news that they will increase debt ceiling by 2 trillion next month. Markets already reacting to this news in advance. Shorts will get CRUSHED. S&P 1600 in a year is possible.
Well, since the S&p is a broad based index, is it less likely to trend compared to commodities and currencies. So a reversion to the mean is more likely. That said, the last 2 years were abnormally trendy for the S&P.