was today the most bullish sign in a while? i am the kind of guy who tends to think "we went too much too soon, a dump is coming". but today's action makes me pause. did not the market tell us today that it wants to climb higher? everybody expected a great (or a really good) Job report. we got a totally terrible report and the market shrugs it off. SPY -0.6%, QQQ -0.1% and this is on top of the non-stop monster move we had over the last 2 weeks.
does anybody still believe the old stuff - Dow "Theory"? July 11, 2011, 2:14 PM ET Dow theory spurns bull market at the altar? Last Thursday, the Dow Theory was all set to kiss the bull at the altar of a confirmed bullish signal. But, at the last minute, the Dow Theory got cold feet â with potentially ominous implications for the overall market. The wedding would have been consummated if both the Dow Jones Industrial Average INDU and the Dow Jones Transportation Average DJT had closed above their previous bull-market highs. The Transports succeeded in doing this on Jul. 1, and as of last Thursdayâs close, the Industrials were within 1% of doing so. But then came Fridayâs shocking jobs report, along with stocksâ continued weakness today. As a result, itâs looking increasingly as though the Industrials will not be able to repeat the Transportsâ achievement any time soon. This therefore constitutes a classic non-confirmation, in Dow Theory parlance. Of the three hurdles that the market must jump over to satisfy the requirements for a Dow Theory sell signal, therefore, it would appear that two have now been cleared. The last hurdle would be cleared if both Dow averages close below their May-June closing lows, which are 11,897.27 for the Industrials and 5,060.59 for the Transports. The bull still has some hope, however. If both averages close above their previous highs, then the Dow Theory will issue a confirmation that the major trend remains up. - Mark Hulbert http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2011/07/11/dow-theory-spurns-bull-market-at-the-altar/
Resumption of equity correction gains momentum. EURUSD downtrend and USD uptrend on daily chart become more pronounced. Bring on the overdue dollar rally... BLACK SWAN chart available for viewing at my blog....
Wow that was fast!!! 1360 to 1300. And, of course some stellar 2 sided trading in between. Now---chartistically speaking--- there is what appears to be a BIG FLAG developing at this level which if it represents a continuation pattern which it most likely percentage wise does would mean that we are halfway to a measured move back to 1250. There is much money to be made with the volatility and as such trade the chart not the prediction. Cheers
Volatility. Yes!!! That big flag is trying to set up as a big bottom but there is a lot of uncertainty in the market. That makes for big trading ranges. ATR has bumped up to 20 day ranges in the spoos and more. We may or may not hold 1300ish for awhile. Need to see more price action here but a bounce before a break would make sense to suck in long money and allow more shorts on board. The short squeeze rally cleared out many sellers.