Look at the bigger picture for US markets. Its a summer market with volatility in both directions and no real commitment to break the trading range that its been in all year, despite huge news ( good or bad ) at various points. Not a great trading environment, in my opinion. Best to study your favorite equities and consider long positions if they oversell. I suspect the next round of earnings reports will surprise to the upside because expectations are being downgraded all summer. The end of QE2 has been priced into US equities for some time now, preventing this trading range from breaking out. If earnings do NOT drop as expected, the markets will rally. There is an underlying theory amongst many traders that QE is driving the huge earnings, and actual results will confirm this one way or another in the next two quarters.
The main driver for markets was QE2. The main headwind oil prices Those upgrades/downgrades earnings just a noise So QE2 is over, oil started to rise again Now another headwind as bond prices must be capped especially after debt ceiling will be increased So you have 3 major items which play against stocks. I strongly believe this is a bull trap. Although some near term event may hold market for some time but In September we will see a major break down in stock prices (S&P below 1200)
to put it mildly, i am not the best market timer out there. still, i called the last bottom quite well. Nine_Ender, as I recall, at that time was saying what a great company RIMM was (got crashed on that call). Then he went into fetal position and disappeared from ET so typical of a perma-bull to be frozen in the headlights of Greek crisis.
earnings are not expected to drop. earnings are expected to rise 16% and as we know it's already discounted so if earnings fall like you suggest we will be -30% overnight
Why do you guys think of August 56 puts. They are .58/.59 now? I am thinking about them in case QQQ does not go to 60 area. QQQ is now at the 58.40 area.
You nailed that bottom shortie! One more, and I think you should be "forced" to start a hedge fund. I remember the 9guy always bullish even at tops in the famous weekly threads that you used to run sometime ago. Shortie is one of the very Few, the Brave, ... Guys: be nice (and thankful) to Shortie!
Your recollection is terrible. What I said was IF I WAS SHORT I WOULD TAKE PROFITS PRIOR TO EARNINGS. Go ahead, quote any post I've made, but DO NOT ATTRIBUTE IDEAS I HAVE NOT POSTED TO ME. And for the last time, I am no "perma bull". I've posted several excellent short ideas in the last year. But excuse me for a second here, I was extremely bullish about markets from late August 2010 to December 2010. You know why ? Because of fundamentals followed by a technical signal to buy. Oh, by the way, the markets went up 30%. So what are you hoping for, that I post bearish ideas in that market like the rest of you ? Now, show me my "overly bullish" posts I've posted on here since April 1st. Even just a few.
Where are you going to make 25 real-time market calls? Stop talking, and show what you know or do not know.
I have a market call... I think the markets are going to go up and down this week, and next. Anyone agree? !
P/E levels do not support your opinion. US markets are extremely cheap on a historical basis based on current earnings. If they rise 16% then equities are ridiculously cheap and have to rally or the m&a activity will heat up again. Please try to be rational, if earnings really do go up 16% then what's to stop the markets themselves from rising 16% ??? Its definately not priced in, markets have gone nowhere all year. Valuation is one of the most misunderstood factors on this site. Sure, you can claim US debt levels or economic collapses in some countries can tank markets. But on a valuation basis, forget it. Do the research.